[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Sep 26 15:56:15 UTC 2016

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons:*

Weekly total rainfall was above-average over many places in the Gulf of
Guinea and Central Africa countries.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over much of Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, northern DRC, western Ethiopia
and eastern South Africa. In contrast, there is an increased chance for
below-average rainfall over northeastern Nigeria, southern Chad, northern
CAR and southern Sudan.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*

For the past 90 days, as the summer monsoon season  is winding down,
rainfall amounts are showing an overall mixed pattern over the monsoon
region with slightly excess rainfall across parts of central and
northeastern India, Burma, Laos and Vietnam, near normal rainfall across
most of China, and Indonesia, but below normal rainfall over southern
peninsular India, central eastern China, and Papua New Guinea. For the past
30 days the rainfall situation is again a mixed pattern with below normal
pattern over north central and southern India, and central eastern China.
Elsewhere the rainfall is near normal or slightly above.

In this past week, monsoon rainfall was deficient over southern India and
southeastern China.  According to the India Met. Dept. (IMD), as of today,
for the 2016 monsoon season so far, since the 1st of June, the monsoon
rainfall continues to stay slightly deficient  by about -3 % across the
country, as the summer monsoon slowly begins to recede from continental
India. In the next couple of weeks the NCEP GFS is predicting slightly
above rainfall across parts of central India, heavy rainfall over
southeastern China in the first week, continued below normal rainfall over
southern India, and near normal rainfall elsewhere.

*North American Monsoons:*

Near-average rainfall has been observed over northwestern Mexico and
southwestern U.S. during the past week.

Rainfall accumulations over the past 30 days were near-average for northern
Mexico and below-average for southern Mexico.

NCEP/GFS Forecasts call for near-average precipitation for Arizona and
northwestern Mexico during 26 September – 02 October, 2016.

*South American Monsoons:*

Long-term rainfall deficits are present over Brazilian Plateau and southern

During the last 7 days (19-25 September 2016), below-average precipitation
was observed over northwestern Venezuela, northern and southern Brazil.
Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of Colombia, eastern
Ecuador, eastern Peru, northern Bolivia and southern Amazon Basin.

For 26 September – 02 October 2016, below-average precipitation is
predicted over Venezuela, southern Brazil and southern Chile. Above-average
precipitation is predicted over central Colombia, western-central Peru and
southern Amazon Basin.

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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