[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Oct 31 15:56:12 UTC 2016

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons:*

Below-average rainfall was observed over many places in the Gulf of Guinea
and Equatorial Africa countries, including DRC and southern Somalia.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over portions of Gabon, southern Congo-Brazzaville, and the neighboring
areas of western DRC and northern Angola, portions of eastern DRC, and much
of Rwanda and Burundi. In contrast, there is an increased chance for
below-average rainfall over eastern DRC, portions of northern DRC and
southern Sudan, much of South Sudan, southwestern Ethiopia, western Zambia,
and portions of northern Botswana and northern Zimbabwe.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*

For the past 90 days, severe rainfall deficits are beginning to accrue over
southern peninsular India, where the deficits are due both from the
southwest summer monsoon that just ended in September and the emerging
fall/winter northeast monsoon.  Deficits are also noted over central and
northern India, and east central China. Elsewhere the 90 day rainfall
amounts are at near or above normal levels. For the past 30 days the
rainfall was much below normal over southern India south of approximately
18N, especially along the east coast, much above normal over eastern
coastal and bordering interior  China round 30N. Rainfall was also at near
or above normal levels across Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Papua
New Guinea.

In this past week, eastern China received above normal rainfall and
northeast monsoon rainfall was deficient over southern India. This past
week’s rainfall across the region was very consistent with the rainfall
forecast by the CFS model. According to the India Met. Dept. (IMD), as of
today, the rainfall for the whole country was highly deficient by about -33
% across the country, since the start of the climatological North East
winter monsoon (Oct-Dec) over southern India. In the next couple of weeks
the NCEP GFS model continues to predict below normal rainfall amounts not
only over southern peninsular India but also across the entire monsoon
region, with just the exception of parts of the Philippines.

*South American Monsoons:*

Long-term rainfall deficits are present over Brazilian Plateau.

During the last 7 days (24 – 30 October 2016), below-average precipitation
was observed over portions of the northern South America and central
Brazil. Above-average precipitation was observed over central Colombia,
portions of northern Brazil and a large area across the central Argentina
and southern Brazil.

For 31 Oct – 06 Nov 2016, below-average precipitation is predicted over
central Brazil and northern Argentina. Above-average precipitation is
predicted for northwestern South America and southern Brazil.

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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