[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Oct 24 15:59:14 UTC 2016

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons:*

Weekly rainfall totals exceeded 100mm over portions of southern Nigeria and
western Cameroon, whereas suppressed rainfall prevailed across many places
in the Central and East Africa.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for below-average rainfall
over portions of Ghana, Nigeria, northern Cameroon, southern Chad, CAR,
western South Sudan, southeastern DRC, Rwanda, Burundi, and western
Tanzania. In contrast, there is an increased chance for above-average
rainfall over southern Ethiopia and the neighboring areas of southeastern
South Sudan, northern Kenya and Somalia.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*

For the past 90 days, the monsoon rainfall was generally at near to above
normal levels everywhere except peninsular southern India, parts of
northern India, central China and Indonesia. For the past 30 days the
rainfall was much below normal over southern India, southwestern China
bordering Burma, parts of Malaysia, and southern Cambodia. Elsewhere, the
rainfall was near or above normal, especially all along coastal China.

In this past week, eastern China received above normal rainfall and
northeast monsoon rainfall was deficient over southern India as well as
across the east Asian countries. According to the India Met. Dept. (IMD),
as of today, the rainfall for the whole country was highly deficient by
about -28 % across the country, since the start of the climatalogical North
East winter monsoon (Oct-Dec) over southern India.  In the next couple of
weeks the NCEP GFS is predicting below normal rainfall over much of the
region particularly southern India. The model also predicts above normal in
central-eastern China along 30N in the first week.

*South American Monsoons:*

Long-term rainfall deficits are present over Brazilian Plateau and southern

During the last 7 days (17 – 23 October 2016), below-average precipitation
was observed over most of the northern half of South America (north of
26S).  Above-average precipitation was observed over the extreme southern
Brazil, Uruguay and central Argentina.

For 24 – 30 October 2016, below-average precipitation is predicted over
portions of northern South America and eastern Brazil, western Peru,
southern Bolivia and southern Chile. Above-average precipitation is
predicted for southeastern Colombia, western Brazil and eastern-central

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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