[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Oct 17 15:47:38 UTC 2016

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons:*

Weekly rainfall surpluses exceeded 100mm over parts of Central Africa
Republic, while suppressed rainfall prevailed over much of Gabon, and the
Lake Victoria region.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, portions of eastern DRC, Lesotho and
parts of South Africa. In contrast, there is an increased chance for
below-average rainfall over much of South Sudan, eastern Angola, and
southwestern DRC.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*

For the past 90 days, the monsoon rainfall was generally at near to above
normal levels everywhere except peninsular southern India, parts of
northern India and central China. For the past 30 days the rainfall was
much below normal over southern India, southern China bordering South China
Sea, parts of Malaysia, and southern Cambodia. Elsewhere, the rainfall was
near or above normal.

In this past week, monsoon rainfall was deficient over southern India.
According to the India Met. Dept. (IMD), as of today, the rainfall for the
whole country was deficient by about -12 % across the country, since the
start of the dermatological North East winter monsoon (Oct-Dec) over
southern India. In the next couple of weeks the NCEP GFS is predicting
below normal rainfall over much of the region particularly southern India.
Two typhoons Sarika and Haima are active in the South China Sea and
tropical Western Pacific region respectively, the later threatening the
Philippine islands with a possible landfall.

*South American Monsoons:*

Long-term rainfall deficits are present over Brazilian Plateau and southern

During the last 7 days (10 – 16 October 2016), below-average precipitation
was observed over the northern South America, eastern Bolivia and much of
Brazil.  Above-average precipitation was observed over southern Colombia,
northern Peru, southeastern Paraguay and eastern Argentina.

For 17 – 23 October 2016, below-average precipitation is predicted over
portions of northern South America, western and southern Brazil, northern
Peru and southern Chile. Above-average precipitation is predicted for the
extreme southern Brazil and eastern-central Argentina.

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)

Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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