[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon May 16 17:00:49 UTC 2016

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons (AFMS.ppt):*

Another week of moderate to heavy rainfall sustained moisture surpluses
over many places in South Sudan and Ethiopia.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over eastern Nigeria, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, northern Gabon, northern
Congo-Brazzaville, northern DRC, CAR, South Sudan Republic, and western
Kenya. In contrast, there is an increased chance for below-average rainfall
over portions central DRC and southern Congo-Brazzaville.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons (AAMS.ppt):*

For the past 90 days rainfall amounts are showing minor deficits across
southern India, and major deficits over large parts of Australia and
southeast Asian countries such as Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia,
the Philippines and eastern Papua New Guinea.  However, northeastern India,
coastal southeastern China and many parts of Indonesia received  above
normal rainfall. For the past 30 days the rainfall situation was deficient
over Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, the Philippines islands, central
eastern Australia. However, northeast India, southeastern China, and parts
of Indonesia had received more rainfall.

In this past week, rainfall was generally deficient over east Asian
countries Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, different parts of Indonesian islands.
The India Met Dept (IMD) has announced the Indian summer southwest monsoon
onset over Kerala on the 7th of June, about a week later than normal. In
the next couple of weeks the NCEP GFS model is predicting above normal
rainfall much over southern India at least in the first week. Whether this
is the monsoon onset or not, is not clear, since it is well ahead of

*South American Monsoons (SAMS.ppt):*

Long-term rainfall deficits continue over the Amazon Basin and central
Brazil. The rainy season has ended over central Brazil.

During the last 7 days (9-15 May 2016), below-average precipitation was
observed over portions of the Amazon Basin and southern Chile.  Above-average
precipitation was observed over portions of southwestern Brazil, Paraguay,
northern Peru, Ecuador and central Colombia.

For 16-22 May 2016, below-average precipitation is predicted for most of
the Amazon Basin, northern Peru, extreme southern Brazil and southern
Chile. Above-average precipitation is predicted for portions of Colombia,
Southeast Brazil and Paraguay.

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Vernon.Kousky at noaa.gov (for South American monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for North American monsoon update and for general issues
about the CPC Global Monsoons products)
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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