[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

[Wei Shi - NOAA Federal]

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons
website:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml

*HIGHLIGHTS:*



*African Monsoons (AFMS.ppt):*



Moderate to heavy rainfall sustained moisture surpluses over many places in
the Greater Horn of Africa, whereas below-average rainfall continued to
prevail over much of the Gulf of Guinea region.



Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over much of Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, southern Congo-Brazzaville, western
Kenya, and many parts of Ethiopia. In contrast, there is an increased
chance for below-average rainfall over portions of DRC.



*Asian-Australian Monsoons (AAMS.ppt):*



For the past 90 days rainfall amounts are showing minor deficits across
southern India, and major deficits over large parts of Australia and
southeast Asian countries such as Thailand, Laos, and Cambodia, the
Philippines and eastern Papua New Guinea.  However, northeastern India,
coastal southeastern China and many parts of Indonesia received  above
normal rainfall. For the past 30 days the rainfall situation was deficient
over Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, the Philippines islands, central
eastern Australia. The exception is over northeastern India, southeastern
China, and parts of Indonesia.



In this past week, rainfall was deficient over east countries Thailand,
Cambodia, Laos, different parts of Indonesian islands. But above normal
rainfall fell over northwestern Australia, southeastern and far
northeastern China. In the next couple of weeks the NCEP GFS model is
predicting above normal rainfall along the Gangetic plains, Nepal, and
along the Arabian coast in western peninsular India. It is highly unlikely
to term this as the seasonal SW summer monsoon onset for this year, since
that does not happen climatologically until early June.



*South American Monsoons (SAMS.ppt):*



Long-term rainfall deficits continue over the Amazon Basin and central
Brazil. The rainy season has ended over central Brazil.



During the last 7 days (2-8 May 2016), below-average precipitation was
observed over most of the Amazon Basin, south of the equator,  northern
Northeast Brazil, southern Brazil , Uruguay and northeastern
Argentina.  Above-average
precipitation was observed over portions of extreme northern Brazil.



For 9-15 May 2016, below-average precipitation is predicted for most of the
Amazon Basin. Above-average precipitation is predicted for northern
portions of southern Brazil, southern Paraguay and portions of northern and
central Argentina.




*For questions or comments, please contact:


Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Vernon.Kousky at noaa.gov (for South American monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for North American monsoon update and for general issues
about the CPC Global Monsoons products)
*---------------------------------------------------------------------------
   *
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Meteorologist
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
USA
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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