[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Apr 18 15:56:21 UTC 2016

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons (AFMS.ppt):*

Moderate to heavy rainfall resulted in rainfall surpluses across many areas
of central Africa and the Greater Horn of Africa.

Week-1 outlook calls for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
throughout Gabon, southern Congo Brazzaville, northern Angola, central DRC,
Rwanda, Burundi, western Tanzania, the Comoros Islands, northern
Madagascar, and central Ethiopia. In contrast, there is an increased chance
for below-average rainfall over eastern Ghana, Togo, Benin, and much of

*Asian-Australian Monsoons (AAMS.ppt):*

For the past 90 days rainfall amounts was generally at near normal levels
across India, large parts of China, was a mixed pattern across the southern
and east Asia monsoon region, the Philippines and over Indonesia.  However,
coastal southeastern China and large parts of Indonesia received
excessively above normal rainfall, while the Philippines, eastern Papua New
Guinea and large parts of Australia had generally received below normal
rainfall consistent with the slowly receding El Nino conditions in the
tropical Pacific. For the past 30 days the rainfall situation was generally
deficient over the whole region, particularly over the Philippines islands,
northwestern Australia. The exception is over northeastern India,
southeastern China, and parts of Indonesia.

In this past week, rainfall is more than normal over northeastern India and
vicinity, southeastern China and slightly interior areas, and across parts
of Indonesian islands. In the next couple of weeks the NCEP GFS model is
predicting above normal rainfall over southern and eastern China and
vicinity as well as over northeastern India. Elsewhere near or below normal
rainfall is forecast by the model.

*South American Monsoons (SAMS.ppt):*

Long-term rainfall deficits continue over the Amazon Basin and central
Brazil. The rainy season has ended over central Brazil.

During the last 7 days (11-17 April 2016), below-average precipitation was
observed over portions of the Amazon Basin, and central, Northeast and
Southeast Brazil.  Above-average precipitation was observed over Uruguay,
northeastern Argentina, western Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Suriname and
French Guiana.

For 18-24 April 2016, below-average precipitation is predicted for most of
Brazil. Above-average precipitation is predicted for extreme southern
Brazil, Uruguay and northeastern Argentina.

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Vernon.Kousky at noaa.gov (for South American monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for North American monsoon update and for general issues
about the CPC Global Monsoons products)
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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