[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Apr 11 15:56:16 UTC 2016

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons (AFMS.ppt):*

Weekly total rainfall exceeded 100 mm over portions of eastern Ethiopia,
northern Malawi and southern Tanzania.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for below-average rainfall
over southeastern Nigeria, eastern Angola, southern DRC, eastern Kenya and
southern Somalia. In contrast, there is an increased chance for
above-average rainfall over northeastern DRC, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, and
eastern Ethiopia.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons (AAMS.ppt):*

For the past 90 days rainfall amounts was generally at near normal levels
across India, large parts of China, was a mixed pattern across the southern
and east Asia monsoon region, the Philippines and over Indonesia.  However,
coastal southeastern China and large parts of Indonesia received
excessively above normal rainfall, while the Philippines, Papua New Guinea
and large parts of Australia had generally received below normal rainfall
consistent with the ongoing receding El Nino conditions in the tropical
Pacific. For the past 30 days the rainfall situation was generally
deficient over the whole region, particularly over the Philippines islands,
northwestern Australia. The exception is over northern Queensland,
over  southwestern
Borneo island, and  where the rainfall is at above normal levels. Rainfall
was also above normal over some isolated regions across eastern
Afghanistan, northern Pakistan, northern India and over southeastern China.

In this past week, as the monsoon associated convection is transitioning
from the southern hemisphere to the northern hemisphere crossing the
equator, now and then rainfall is beginning to  pop up over northeastern
India and Bangladesh. Southeastern China and Japan also received above
normal rainfall this past week. In the next couple of weeks the NCEP GFS
model is predicting above normal rainfall over parts of northeastern India,
Bangladesh and Burma, as well as over eastern China, parts of Indonesia and
even over extreme southern peninsular India.

*South American Monsoons (SAMS.ppt):*

Long-term rainfall deficits continue over the Amazon Basin and central
Brazil. The rainy season appears to have ended over central Brazil.

During the last 7 days (4-10 April 2016), below-average precipitation was
observed over most of Brazil.  Above-average precipitation was observed
over Uruguay and northern Argentina.

For 11-17 April 2016, below-average precipitation is predicted for most of
central, Northeast and Southeast Brazil. Above-average precipitation is
predicted for most of Colombia, eastern Ecuador, northern Peru, Uruguay and
eastern Argentina.

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Vernon.Kousky at noaa.gov (for South American monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for North American monsoon update and for general issues
about the CPC Global Monsoons products)
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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