[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Mon Sep 14 16:02:50 UTC 2015

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons
website:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml

*HIGHLIGHTS:*

*African Monsoons (AFMS.ppt):*

Moderate to locally heavy rainfall resulted in moisture surpluses across
eastern Sudan, northern Ethiopia and Eritrea, whereas suppressed rainfall
prevailed over many places in the Gulf of Guinea and Central Africa
countries.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
across Guinea-Conakry, portions of southern Mali, Sierra Leone, western
Liberia, northern Cote d'Ivoire, Burkina Faso, portions of Ghana, Togo,
Benin, Nigeria and southwestern Cameroon. In contrast, there is an
increased chance for below-average rainfall over portions of South Sudan,
northeastern DRC, Rwanda and western Uganda.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons (AAMS.ppt):*

For the past 90 days rainfall amounts have generally been below normal
across the southern and east Asia monsoon region consistent with the
ongoing strong El Nino conditions. However, northeast India, Bangladesh,
Burma, and parts of eastern China have received above normal rainfall
amounts. For the past 30 days, rainfall was considerably below normal
everywhere except along northeastern India, parts of Burma and to some
extent along southern China. According to the India Met. Dept. (IMD), the
SW summer monsoon rainfall over India as whole since the 1st of June, as of
today September 14th, is now 16 % below normal. With only 2 weeks left
before the official end of the Indian summer monsoon, these conditions are
expected to continue. The impacts of the Pacific El Nino are quite obvious
with generally decreased rainfall over south/east Asia and increased
rainfall across the equatorial Pacific.

In this past week  the rainfall amounts over most of central and northern
India and elsewhere across the monsoon region was below  normal.  In the
next couple of weeks, the NCEP GFS model is predicting a gradual retreat of
the Indian summer monsoon from the west and north of India into central and
southern India, more rainfall over southern and eastern China, but less
rainfall over southeast Asian countries of Thailand, Laos, Vietnam and
Cambodia particularly in the second week.

*South American Monsoons (SAMS.ppt):*

Rainfall deficits are present over the central and southern Amazon Basin.

During the last 7 days (7-13 September 2015), below-average precipitation
was observed over a large portion of northern South America, and  over
extreme southern Brazil.  Above-average precipitation was observed over
eastern Bolivia, and  over southeastern and southwestern Brazil.

For 14-20 September 2015, below-average rainfall is indicated for the
southern Amazon Basin and over Brazil between 20S and 25S. Above-average
rainfall is predicted for extreme southern Brazil (southern Rio Grande do
Sul).

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Vernon.Kousky at noaa.gov (for South American monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for North American monsoon update and for general issues
about the CPC Global Monsoons products)

*---------------------------------------------------------------------------
   *
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Meteorologist
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
USA
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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