[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Tue Oct 13 15:26:10 UTC 2015

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons (AFMS.ppt):*

Another week of moderate to locally heavy rainfall sustained moisture
surpluses across portions of West Africa.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for below-average rainfall
over portions of eastern Ghana, Togo Benin, and Nigeria. In contrast, there
is an increased chance for above-average rainfall over southeastern
Ethiopia, Somalia and northern Kenya.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons (AAMS.ppt):*

For the past 90 days rainfall amounts have generally been below normal over
many parts of India, across the southern and east Asia monsoon region,
particularly over Indonesia,   consistent with the ongoing strong El Nino
conditions. However, northeast India, Bangladesh, Burma, and large parts of
southeastern China have received above normal rainfall amounts. For the
past 30 days, rainfall was considerably below normal over northern/central
India, Thailand, Cambodia, southern Vietnam and across Indonesian
Archipelago. Traditionally, the first couple of weeks of October marks the
end of the summer Southwest monsoon and the onset of the winter Northeast
monsoon over India. Unlike the much attention paid to the onset of the SW
monsoon, the onset of NE monsoon does not get media attention, except in
Tamilnadu. This NE monsoon which ends in December, usually brings rainfall
to the following states of India: Tamilnadu, Kerala, coastal AP,
Rayalaseema, and Interior Karnataka. It is also the main season for

In this past week, except along south India, Burma, and along  southern and
coastal eastern China, rainfall amounts were generally at below normal
levels across the monsoon region, especially across all of Indonesia. In
the next couple of weeks, the NCEP GFS model is predicting below normal
rainfall over the entire monsoon region, except over extreme southern India.

*South American Monsoons (SAMS.ppt):*

Rainfall deficits increased over many areas of northern South America,
including the Brazilian Plateau.

During the last 7 days (5-11 October 2015), below-average precipitation was
observed over a large portion of northern South America.  Above-average
precipitation was observed over southern Brazil and extreme northeastern

For 12-18 October 2015, below-average rainfall is predicted for central and
southeastern Brazil, eastern Bolivia, southern Paraguay and northern
Argentina. Above-average rainfall is predicted for portions of Colombia,
Ecuador, Peru and extreme southern Brazil.

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Vernon.Kousky at noaa.gov (for South American monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for North American monsoon update and for general issues
about the CPC Global Monsoons products)
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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