<div dir="ltr">
<p class="MsoNormal">The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent
variability of the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global
Monsoons website: <br>
<a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml">http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml</a>
<br>
<br>
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal">HIGHLIGHTS:</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> </b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal">African Monsoons (AFMS.ppt):</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> </b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"">Another
week of moderate to locally heavy rainfall sustained moisture surpluses across
portions of West Africa.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman""> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"">Week-1
outlooks call for an increased chance for below-average rainfall over portions
of eastern Ghana, Togo Benin, and Nigeria. In contrast, there is an increased
chance for above-average rainfall over southeastern Ethiopia, Somalia and
northern Kenya.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman""> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:12pt"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:
normal"> </b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal">Asian-Australian
Monsoons (AAMS.ppt):</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">For the past 90 days rainfall amounts have generally been
below normal over many parts of India, across the southern and east Asia
monsoon region, particularly over Indonesia,<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">
</span>consistent with the ongoing strong El Nino conditions. However,
northeast India, Bangladesh, Burma, and large parts of southeastern China have
received above normal rainfall amounts. For the past 30 days, rainfall was
considerably below normal over northern/central India, Thailand, Cambodia,
southern Vietnam and across Indonesian Archipelago. Traditionally, the first
couple of weeks of October marks the end of the summer Southwest monsoon and
the onset of the winter Northeast monsoon over India. Unlike the much attention
paid to the onset of the SW monsoon, the onset of NE monsoon does not get media
attention, except in Tamilnadu. This NE monsoon which ends in December, usually
brings rainfall to the following states of India: Tamilnadu, Kerala, coastal
AP, Rayalaseema, and Interior Karnataka. It is also the main season for
Tamilnadu.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In this past week, except along south India, Burma, and
along<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>southern and coastal eastern
China, rainfall amounts were generally at below normal levels across the
monsoon region, especially across all of Indonesia. In the next couple of
weeks, the NCEP GFS model is predicting below normal rainfall over the entire
monsoon region, except over extreme southern India.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal">South American Monsoons
(SAMS.ppt):</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> </b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Rainfall deficits increased over many areas of northern
South America, including the Brazilian Plateau.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">During the last 7 days (5-11 October 2015), below-average
precipitation was observed over a large portion of northern South America.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Above-average precipitation was observed over
southern Brazil and extreme northeastern Argentina.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">For 12-18 October 2015, below-average rainfall is predicted
for central and southeastern Brazil, eastern Bolivia, southern Paraguay and
northern Argentina. Above-average rainfall is predicted for portions of
Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and extreme southern Brazil.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><br>
*For questions or comments, please contact: </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><br>
<a href="mailto:Endalkachew.Bekele@noaa.gov">Endalkachew.Bekele@noaa.gov</a> (for the African monsoons)</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="mailto:Muthuvel.Chelliah@noaa.gov">Muthuvel.Chelliah@noaa.gov</a> (for Asian-Australian monsoons)</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="mailto:Vernon.Kousky@noaa.gov">Vernon.Kousky@noaa.gov</a>
(for South American monsoons)</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="mailto:Wei.Shi@noaa.gov">Wei.Shi@noaa.gov</a>
(for North American monsoon update and for general issues about the CPC Global
Monsoons products)</p>
<div><div class="gmail_signature"><div cols="72"><b>--------------------------------------------------------------------------- </b></div>
<div cols="72">Wei Shi, Ph.D </div>
<div cols="72">Meteorologist </div>
<div cols="72">Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA </div>
<div cols="72">NCWCP Room 3116</div>
<div cols="72">5830 University Research Court </div>
<div cols="72">College Park, MD 20740 </div>
<div cols="72">USA </div>
<div cols="72">Phone: (301) 683-3440 </div>
<div cols="72"><b>----------------------------------------------------------------------------</b></div></div></div>
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