[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

[Wei Shi - NOAA Federal]

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems (NAMS.ppt, AFMS.ppt and AAMS.ppt) have been
updated on the CPC Global Monsoons website:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml

*HIGHLIGHTS:*



*African Monsoons (AFMS.ppt):*



Weekly total rainfall exceeded 100mm over Liberia, southern Cote d’Ivoire,
western Cameroon, northeastern DRC, eastern South Sudan Republic and
western Ethiopia, whereas suppressed rainfall prevailed over many places of
the central Africa countries.



Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over Guinea-Conakry, sierra Leone, Liberia, western and northern Cote
d’Ivoire, Burkina Faso, northern Benin and northern Nigeria.





*Asian-Australian Monsoons (AAMS.ppt):*



For the past 90 days, the precipitation pattern over  entire India,
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Burma, almost all of China was at near-normal to
slightly above normal levels.  However, rainfall was much below normal over
Laos, North and South Vietnam and Cambodia, Philippines, parts of Malaysia
and Indonesia, and below normal over large parts of northern and north
central Australia. For the past 30 days, severe precipitation deficits have
continue to exist over many southeast Asian countries Laos, North and South
Vietnam, Cambodia, and the Philippines and excess in precipitation are
noticed over southeastern China.



In this past week, the precipitation was generally normal to below normal
over large parts of south east Asia. The India Met. Dept. based on its own
multiple criteria (OLR, rainfall and winds) for India monsoon onset over
its southwestern coast in the state of Kerala, declared the official onset
of the southwest summer monsoon on the 5th of June 2015. In the next couple
of weeks, the NCEP GFS model is predicting above normal precipitation over
northeastern India and vicinity, southeastern China, parts of Indonesia and
New Guinea, and continued below normal rainfall over the other southeast
Asian countries. The models also forecast the slow northward spread of the
southwest monsoon over southcentral India.





*North American Monsoons (NAMS.ppt):*



Slightly above-average rainfall has been observed over southern Mexico
during the past week.



Rainfall accumulations over the past 30 days are near-average across the
western Mexico and southwestern U.S., and above-average over the eastern
part of Mexico.



NCEP/GFS Forecasts call for above-average rainfall over the western Mexico
and below-average across the eastern Mexico during the next week.





*South American Monsoons (SAMS.ppt):*



The South American Monsoon System 2014-2015 wet season has ended. The next
weekly update will be prepared in September 2015. The summary of the
2014-2015 wet season can be found on the following webpage:



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons/American_Monsoons.shtml




*For questions or comments, please contact:


Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Vernon.Kousky at noaa.gov (for South American monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for North American monsoon update and for general issues
about the CPC Global Monsoons products)
*---------------------------------------------------------------------------
   *
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Meteorologist
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
USA
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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