[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

[Wei Shi - NOAA Federal]

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons
website:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml

*HIGHLIGHTS:*



*African Monsoons (AFMS.ppt):*



Weekly total rainfall exceeded 150mm over portions of Madagascar, whereas
suppressed rainfall prevailed over Gabon, northern Congo-Brazzaville,
northern DRC, Zimbabwe, and portions of South Africa.



Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over western Angola, northwestern Namibia, portions of southern Tanzania
and northern Mozambique, and Madagascar. In contrast, there is an increased
chance for below-average rainfall over portions of eastern Angola and
southern DRC, much of Zambia, Botswana, Malawi, Zimbabwe, central and
southern Mozambique, and eastern South Africa.





*Asian-Australian Monsoons (AAMS.ppt):*



For the past 90 days rainfall amounts have generally been below normal over
many parts of India, across the southern and east Asia monsoon region,
particularly over Indonesia, Papa New Guinea, Malaysia, Laos, Vietnam, and
Thailand consistent with the ongoing strong El Nino conditions. Australia
is also relatively dry. However, parts of southeastern India, Sri Lanka,
and large parts of southeastern China have received above normal rainfall
amounts. The   NE monsoon during Oct-Dec over southeastern India was
particularly very active. Also, it is interesting to note that for the past
90 days, unlike other parts of SE Asia, almost entire China is at normal or
above normal levels of rainfall, particularly over eastern China. For the
past 30 days, rainfall was considerably above normal over southeastern
India and southeastern China, and over parts of Malaysia and Indonesia.
Also for the past 30 days, the vast India plus China region is at near or
above normal levels of received rainfall. The Northeast Winter monsoon has
brought a lot of rain to southern India, particularly the southern most
state of India, the Tamilnadu and across Sri Lanka. Southeastern China and
northern Australia also received above normal rainfall amounts for the 30
days period.



In this past week, rainfall over the entire region was generally at or
slightly below normal levels.  Associated with a low pressure system near
the region, northern Australia, particularly northern parts of Queensland
and Northern Territory received much higher than normal rainfall for the
week. In the next couple of weeks, the NCEP GFS model is also predicting
isolated regions of regions of heavy rainfall over Indonesia, Australia and
southeastern China in an overall generally below normal rainfall
environment.





*South American Monsoons (SAMS.ppt):*



Rainfall deficits increased over the Amazon Basin, and Central and
Southeast Brazil.



During the last 7 days (21-27 December 2015), below-average precipitation
was observed over most of Brazil north of 20S.  Above-average precipitation
was observed over the western Amazon Basin, and portions of Uruguay,
northeastern Argentina and southern Brazil.



For 28 December 2015-3 January 2016, below-average precipitation is
predicted for most of the Amazon Basin, northern and eastern Bolivia and
southern Northeast Brazil. Above-average precipitation is predicted for
portions of Southeast Brazil, northern Northeast Brazil, and central and
northern Argentina.




*For questions or comments, please contact:


Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Vernon.Kousky at noaa.gov (for South American monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for North American monsoon update and for general issues
about the CPC Global Monsoons products)
*---------------------------------------------------------------------------
   *
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Meteorologist
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
USA
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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