[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Tue Jan 21 18:52:05 UTC 2014

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems (SAMS.ppt, AFMS.ppt and AAMS.ppt) have been
updated on the CPC Global Monsoons website:


*African Monsoons (AFMS.ppt):*

Another week of very heavy rainfall sustained moisture surpluses over parts
of Southeast Africa, including northern Mozambique, the Comoros Islands,
and western Madagascar.

Below-average rainfall continued to prevail over the Lake Victoria region
and much of southern Africa.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over central and eastern Angola, western Zambia, eastern Zimbabwe, Malawi,
Mozambique, and much of Madagascar. In contrast, there is an increased
chance for below-average rainfall over eastern Namibia and Botswana

*Asian-Australian Monsoons (AAMS.ppt):*

During the past 90 days, rainfall has been generally above normal across
eastern coastal central India, Indonesia, and Philippines, but below normal
especially over peninsular southern India, parts of eastern China, Japan,
Korea, Vietnam and large areas of interior eastern central and eastern
Australia. The 30-day anomalous rainfall pattern shows severe drought like
rainfall deficits across northeastern and eastern Australia, but above
normal rainfall conditions over northwest Australia.

The important features of the  rainfall distribution this past week are the
above normal bulls-eye type rainfall feature over north central Australia
and slightly above normal unseasonal rainfall feature over northern India.
Below normal rainfall over eastern Australia this past week continued to
add to already existing dry conditions in that region. For the next two
weeks NCEP GFS model is predicting above normal rainfall over northern and
western Australia.

*South American Monsoons (SAMS.ppt):*

Rainfall deficits are expected to continue over the core monsoon region
during the next two weeks.

During the last 7 days (13-19 January 2014), below-average precipitation
was observed over the eastern Amazon Basin, central and eastern Brazil,
Uruguay and the northern half of Argentina. Above-average precipitation was
observed over northwestern Brazil, and portions of Bolivia and southern

For 20-26 January 2014, below-average precipitation is predicted for
and southeastern Brazil, and most of Peru. Above-average precipitation is
predicted for Bolivia, northern Paraguay, Uruguay and eastern Argentina.

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Vernon.Kousky at noaa.gov (for South American monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for North American monsoon update and for general issues
about the CPC Global Monsoons products)

Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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