[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Jan 13 17:08:18 UTC 2014

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems (SAMS.ppt, AFMS.ppt and AAMS.ppt) have been
updated on the CPC Global Monsoons website:


*African Monsoons (AFMS.ppt):*

Very heavy rainfall was observed over western Madagascar, whereas
suppressed rainfall prevailed over many places of Central and Southern

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for below-average rainfall
over the Lake Victoria region, Botswana, Zimbabwe, central Mozambique, and
northern South Africa. In contrast, there is an increased chance for
above-average rainfall over portions of Angola, southern DRC, Zambia,
northern Mozambique and Madagascar.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons (AAMS.ppt):*

During the past 90 days, rainfall has been generally above normal across
eastern coastal central India, Indonesia, and Philippines, but below normal
especially over peninsular southern India, parts of eastern China, Japan,
Korea, Vietnam and large areas of interior central and eastern Australia.
The 30-day anomalous rainfall pattern shows severe drought like rainfall
deficits across northeastern and eastern Australia, and along the coastal
state of TamilNadu in southern India. However, above normal rainfall
conditions appear along southeastern China and across the various
Indonesian maritime continent.

The important features of the  rainfall distribution this past week are the
above normal rainfall over southern Iran and Jakarta, Indonesia and the
continuing below normal rainfall over  northern Australia. For the next two
weeks NCEP GFS model is predicting near normal rainfall over eastern China,
below normal rainfall over Malaysia, Indonesia region, and above normal
rainfall over northern Australia which will be a welcome relief in that

*South American Monsoons (SAMS.ppt):*

Drier-than-average conditions are predicted over the core monsoon region
during the next week.

During the last 7 days (6-12 January 2014), below-average precipitation was
observed over central and southeastern Brazil and in portions of central
Argentina. Above-average precipitation was observed over Peru, northwestern
Brazil, southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and northern Argentina.

For 13-19 January 2014, below-average precipitation is predicted for the
eastern Amazon Basin, central Brazil, southeastern Brazil, and portions of
southern Brazil. Above-average precipitation is predicted for Peru,
Paraguay, and most of Bolivia.

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Vernon.Kousky at noaa.gov (for South American monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for North American monsoon update and for general issues
about the CPC Global Monsoons products)

Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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