[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Jan 6 16:51:24 UTC 2014

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems (SAMS.ppt, AFMS.ppt and AAMS.ppt) have been
updated on the CPC Global Monsoons website:


*African Monsoons (AFMS.ppt):*

Rainfall surpluses exceeded 100mm over southern Zambia, northern Botswana,
the Caprivi Strip of Namibia, southern Malawi, central Mozambique and
western Madagascar.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for below-average rainfall
over southern and eastern Angola, northern Namibia, western Zambia, parts
of Botswana and northern Madagascar. In contrast, there is an increased
chance for above-average rainfall over central and southern Mozambique, and
southern Madagascar.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons (AAMS.ppt):*

During the past 90 days, rainfall has been generally above normal across
eastern coastal central India, Indonesia, and Philippines, but below normal
especially over peninsular southern India, parts of eastern China, Japan,
Korea, Vietnam and interior central and eastern Australia. The 30-day
anomalous rainfall pattern shows severe drought like rainfall deficits
across northeastern and eastern Australia, and along TamilNadu coastal
state of southern India, where the Northeast Monsoon that just ended in
December did poorly.  However, above normal rainfall conditions appear
along southeastern China and across the various Indonesian maritime

The significant feature of the  rainfall distribution this past week is the
severe rainfall deficit across entire Northern Australia adding to existing
deficits.  Elsewhere the rainfall is quite seasonal. For the next two weeks
NCEP GFS model continues to predict below normal rainfall over Australia.

*South American Monsoons (SAMS.ppt):*

Drier-than-average conditions are predicted over the core monsoon region
during the next two weeks.

During the last 7 days (30 Dec 2013-5 January 2014), below-average
precipitation was observed over most of Brazil north of 20S. Above-average
precipitation was observed over southern Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay.

For 6-12 January 2014, below-average precipitation is predicted for central
and southeastern Brazil. Above-average precipitation is predicted for Peru,
western Brazil, Paraguay, southern Brazil, Uruguay and northeastern

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Vernon.Kousky at noaa.gov (for South American monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for North American monsoon update and for general issues
about the CPC Global Monsoons products)

Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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