[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

[Wei Shi - NOAA Federal]

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons
website:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml

*HIGHLIGHTS:*



*African Monsoons:*



Weekly rainfall surpluses exceeded 100mm over local areas Nigeria, Tanzania
and Kenya.



Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over Sierra Leone, Liberia, southeastern Guinea, Cote d’Ivoire, southern
Ghana, southern Togo, southern Benin, southern Nigeria, western and
southern Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, southwestern Congo. Outlooks
also call for above-average rainfall over northeastern DRC, western Uganda,
western Rwanda, southern Ethiopia, northeastern Kenya, southern Somalia,
and southern Botswana and northern South Africa. In contrast, there is an
increased chance for below-average rainfall over southern DRC, and much of
Zambia.



*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*



For the past 90 days, the rainfall pattern was overall near to above normal
over India, Bangladesh, Burma, Japan, and many South China Sea countries
except Thailand. Rainfall was less  than normal over central eastern
China, Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, New Zealand, and southeastern
Australia. For the past 30 days,  since the end of summer monsoon, India
slightly received above normal rainfall along the Western Ghats region and
the land near the  northern Bay of Bengal. Elsewhere, the rainfall is
generally below normal, except over parts of Indonesia and central China
and in Japan.



In this past week, rainfall over peninsular India is especially in central
eastern areas is above normal, while the rest of south east Asia suffered
from below normal rainfall.  The northeast winter monsoon for southern
India combined with the Tropical cyclone/storm season in the Bay of Bengal
is Oct-Dec months. Since the first of October, thru today, rainfall over
the whole of India is 41% above normal, according to the India Met. Dept.
Recall that the 2019 southwest summer monsoon (Jun-Sep) that just ended was
also overall a relatively good monsoon for the Indian subcontinent. For the
next two weeks, the NCEP GFS model forecasts mixed rainfall pattern over
the whole region, with below normal rainfall over southern India, and
slightly above normal rainfall over southeastern China in the second week.





*South American Monsoons:*



Not available for this week





*For questions or comments, please contact:


Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov  (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
*---------------------------------------------------------------------------
   *
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Meteorologist
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
USA
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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