[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

[Wei Shi - NOAA Federal]

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons
website:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml

*HIGHLIGHTS:*



*African Monsoons:*



Weekly rainfall totals exceeded 100mm over parts of northern Madagascar.



Suppressed rainfall prevailed over many places in Southern Africa.



Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for below-average rainfall
over much of CAR, western South Sudan, northern DRC, central and eastern
Angola, eastern Namibia, western Zambia, Botswana and western Zimbabwe. In
contrast, there is an increased chance for above-average rainfall over
eastern Zambia, Malawi, Tanzania, northern Mozambique, and central and
northern Madagascar.





*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*



For the past 90 days, below normal rainfall deficits dominated deep coastal
southern peninsular India, Japan, large parts of New Guinea island of
Indonesia and Papua New Guinea,  and almost all of Australia, particularly
north western regions. Elsewhere, the rainfall amounts received were at
normal to slightly above normal levels, particularly in southeastern China,
and Indonesia. For the past 30 days, seasonal rainfall fell over Kashmir,
Nepal, and across the Middle East in general. But large parts of Australia
continue to be dry (as well as hot!) except in the northeast over central
and southern Queensland. Elsewhere, rainfall is mixed.



In this past week, almost no rainfall fell across India except near Kashmir
and over Pakistan border region with Afghanistan. This is not the rainy
season for the rest of India and monsoon has moved over to southeast Asia
centered over Indonesia impacting rainfall there and nearby northern
Australia. While southeastern China got heavy rainfall this past week,
Northern Australia continued to be dry with very little seasonal rainfall.
In the upcoming two weeks, the NCEP GFS model forecasts below normal
rainfall in general across the region, except over southeastern China and
parts of New Guinea island in the first week and some rain returning to
northern Australia in the second week.





*South American Monsoons:*



Long-term rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin and the
Brazilian Plateau, as well as the extreme southern Brazil.



During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over
portions of northern Brazil, northern Argentina, Uruguay, northern Peru and
southern Colombia.  Above-average precipitation was observed over portions
of central and southern Brazil and northern Bolivia.



For Days 1-7 (04 - 10 Mar 2019), below-average precipitation is predicted
for portions of northern and central Brazil, eastern Bolivia, northern
Chile and northern and central Peru.  Above-average precipitation is
predicted for portions of northern Argentina, Uruguay, southern Paraguay,
northeastern Brazil, northern Bolivia and southern Peru.





*For questions or comments, please contact:


Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov  (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
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   *
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Meteorologist
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
USA
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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