[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

[Wei Shi - NOAA Federal]

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons
website:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml

*HIGHLIGHTS:*



*African Monsoons:*



Weekly rainfall totals exceeded 100mm over central South Sudan and
northwestern Ethiopia. Heavy rainfall was also observed over local areas in
Ghana, eastern Chad, northern CAR and western Sudan.



Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over parts of Mali, much of Burkina Faso, southern Niger, northern Nigeria,
northern DRC, South Sudan, Uganda, western Kenya and southwestern Ethiopia.
In contrast, there is an increased chance for below-average rainfall over
eastern cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, southern Togo and southern Benin.





*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*



For the past 90 days, below normal rainfall deficits  dominated large parts
of central and southern peninsular India, Korea, Japan, Thailand, Malaysia,
southern Philippines, and Papua New Guinea,  and almost all of Australia,
particularly coastal north western regions. Elsewhere, the rainfall amounts
received were mixed. For the past 30 days the rainfall amounts received
were quite mixed, and particularly deficient over India, and southern China
bordering Burma and north eastward. However, southeastern China received
above normal rainfall, as well as large parts of Indonesia.



In this past week, over almost the whole region, the rainfall amounts
received were much below normal. Since the first of June, till date,
monsoon rainfall over India is about 43% below normal according to the
India Met. Dept (IMD), and this year, the pre-monsoon rain over India is
among the worst in its history.  For the next two weeks, the NCEP GFS model
forecasts below normal rainfall for large parts of India, which is already
experiencing near-record dry conditions. Below normal rainfall is also
forecast for parts of eastern coastal China.





*North American Monsoons:*



Below-average rainfall has been observed over portions of southern and
central Mexico during the past week.



Rainfall accumulations over the past 30 days were near-average for much of
the core NAM region.



NCEP/GFS Forecasts call for below-average precipitation for portions of
northwestern Mexico during the next two weeks.







*For questions or comments, please contact:


Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov  (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
*---------------------------------------------------------------------------
   *
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Meteorologist
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
USA
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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