[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

[Wei Shi - NOAA Federal]

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons
website:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml

*HIGHLIGHTS:*



*African Monsoons:*



Eastern Gabon, central Congo, western DRC, central and northwestern Angola,
eastern Mozambique and local areas in northern Ethiopia, Kenya, central
Tanzania and eastern Zambia experienced moisture surpluses of over 100 mm.



Moisture deficits of over 25 mm were observed in northern Morocco,
Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, parts of Angola, northeastern DRC, southern
Uganda, western and eastern Kenya, portions of Tanzania, Zambia and
Madagascar.



Week-1 forecast calls for an increased chance for weekly rainfall totals to
exceed 50 mm over southern Gabon, southern Congo-Brazzaville, northern
Angola, DRC, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, southern Ethiopia, Kenya, western
Tanzania and northern Zambia, as well as parts of eastern South Africa,
Lesotho, Swaziland and local areas in Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Madagascar.
Week-2 forecast indicates an increased chance for weekly rainfall totals to
exceed 50 mm over local areas in southern Gabon, southwestern Congo,
eastern DRC, southeastern Uganda, southern Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi,
Tanzania, northern Zambia, eastern Zimbabwe, Mozambique, eastern Lesotho
and Madagascar.





*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*



For the past 90 days, below normal rainfall deficits dominated much of
peninsular India, Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, large parts of east
central and eastern Australia, Malaysia, the Philippines, parts of
Indonesia, the Philippines, and Papua New Guinea. Elsewhere, the rainfall
amounts received were at normal to slightly above normal levels,
particularly in southern Burma, Japan, southeast China, and South Korea.
For the past 30 days, severe rainfall deficits are noted across large parts
of south east and coastal east India, Japan, the Philippines, and coastal
north eastern Australia. Overall, less (than normal) rainfall fell across
the region.



In this past week, rainfall amounts are generally below normal across much
of the region.  Also according to the India Met. Dept.(IMD) since the first
of October till today, All India Rainfall has been as much as 50% below
normal. In the upcoming two weeks, the NCEP GFS model forecasts generally
below normal rainfall over almost the entire monsoon region, except for
southeastern China, where above normal rainfall is forecasted, especially
in the first week.



*South American Monsoons:*



During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over
portions of northwestern and southern Brazil, eastern Colombia,
northeastern Peru and northeastern Argentina. Above-average precipitation
was observed over much of northern and central Brazil, Paraguay, northern
Bolivia and northwestern Colombia.



For Days 1-7 (03 - 09 Dec 2018), below-average precipitation is predicted
for much of Venezuela, southern Colombia, northern and central Peru,
southwestern Brazil, southern Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay, eastern Argentina
and southern Chile.  Above-average precipitation is predicted for much of
northeastern Brazil, portions of northwestern Bolivia, central Chile and
central Ecuador.





*For questions or comments, please contact:


Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov  (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
*---------------------------------------------------------------------------
   *
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Meteorologist
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
USA
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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