[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

[Wei Shi - NOAA Federal]

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons
website:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml

*HIGHLIGHTS:*



*African Monsoons:*



Weekly rainfall surpluses exceeded 100mm over western Guinea-Conakry, and
parts of Sierra Leone and Mali.



Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over parts of Senegal, Guinea-Conakry, Sierra Leone, Mali, Burkina Faso,
Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, Niger, and parts of eastern
Chad, northern CAR, northern South Sudan and Sudan. In contrast, there is
an increased chance for below-average rainfall over parts of CAR, northern
Congo, northern DRC and South Sudan.





*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*



For the past 90 days, pockets of below normal rainfall deficits remain over
south/central eastern China,  central India, and  over almost all of
Australia,
and Papua New Guinea. Elsewhere, the rainfall amounts received were at
normal to slightly above normal levels, particularly along the Western
Ghats, northeast India, Burma, Cambodia, Laos, the Philippines, and
Vietnam. For the past 30 days, rainfall deficits are noted in large parts
of eastern China, Koreas, Japan, peninsular central India, large parts of
Indonesian islands and Malaysia. Elsewhere rainfall received was at normal
to above normal levels.



In this past week, rainfall amounts are generally below normal everywhere
in the region except along the Kerala coast in southwestern India in the
Western Ghats, and there are reports of heavy mud slides, flooding and loss
of life.   But large deficits occurred over western central India.
According to the India Met. Dept, since the first of June till today, All
India Rainfall has been has been10 % deficient. In the upcoming two weeks,
the NCEP GFS model forecast  continues to predict above normal rainfall
along the Kerala Coast, parts of northern India, Laos, Vietnam and
Indonesia.



*North American Monsoons:*



Near-average rainfall has been observed over Arizona and New Mexico during
the past week. Meanwhile, portions of the northern and central Mexico have
received above-average precipitation.



Rainfall accumulations over the past 30 days were near-average for Arizona
and below-average for much of Mexico and New Mexico.



NCEP/GFS Forecasts call for near-average precipitation for Arizona and New
Mexico and above-average rainfall for northwestern Mexico for the next two
weeks.





*For questions or comments, please contact:


Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)

*---------------------------------------------------------------------------
   *
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Meteorologist
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
USA
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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