[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

[Wei Shi - NOAA Federal]

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons
website:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml

*HIGHLIGHTS:*



*African Monsoons:*



Another week of moderate to heavy rainfall sustained moisture surpluses
across southern Ethiopia, Kenya and portions of Tanzania.



Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for below-average rainfall
over much of CAR, western South Sudan, and northern DRC. In contrast, there
is an increased chance for above-average rainfall over eastern DRC, Rwanda,
Burundi, northern Tanzania, parts of Uganda, western Kenya, northern
Somalia, and portions of Ethiopia.





*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*



For the past 90 days, below normal rainfall deficits remain over
southeastern China, over large parts of Australia (except along come
northern coastal regions), New Guinea, parts of Malaysia, as well as over
the Middle East. Elsewhere, in general, the rainfall amounts received were
at normal to slightly above normal levels. For the past 30 days,  the
prominent features are the severely  lower rainfall amounts over coastal
south eastern China, southern Japan, and over New Guinea maritime island.
Elsewhere, the pattern is mixed.



In this past week, while the routine southwest summer monsoon over India is
yet to start, the rainfall amounts received over the entire region is kind
of mixed. Particularly, the rainfall is much below normal over southeastern
China and over large parts of New Guinea except in the middle of that
island. Elsewhere the rainfall is spotty here and there in the region. In
the upcoming two weeks, the NCEP GFS model is predicting that rainfall will
pretty much recede/move further north from northern Australia, into
southeast Asia, on its slow march towards the Indian subcontinent. A mixed
anomaly pattern is expected over southeast Asia.



*South American Monsoons:*



Long-term rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin and the
Brazilian Plateau.



During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over
portions of northern and the extreme southern Brazil, southern Paraguay,
northeastern Argentina, northern Bolivia, western Ecuador and western
Colombia. Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of
northwestern and central Brazil, eastern Argentina and eastern Colombia.



For Days 1-7 (23 - 29 April 2018), below-average precipitation is predicted
over much of Brazil, Paraguay, eastern Bolivia and northern Ecuador.
Above-average precipitation is predicted for portions of northern South
America and northern Argentina.





*For questions or comments, please contact:


Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)

*---------------------------------------------------------------------------
   *
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Meteorologist
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
USA
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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