[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Oct 16 15:20:05 UTC 2017

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons:*

Below-average rainfall was observed over portions of the Gulf of Guinea
region, whereas many places in central and eastern Africa received
above-average rainfall.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for below-average rainfall
over portions of the Gulf of Guinea countries, and parts of southern DRC,
northern Angola and northern Zambia. In contrast, there is an increased
chance for above-average rainfall over parts of Ethiopia, South Sudan,
northeastern DRC, Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda and northern Tanzania.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*

For the past 90 days, below normal rainfall deficits remain in general over
parts of northern & central India, Koreas, Japan, coastal eastern China,
Papua New Guinea, and parts of south eastern Australia. Elsewhere the
monsoon rainfall is at normal to above normal levels. For the past 30
days,  neutral to mild below normal rainfall deficits are noted over
northern and north central India, but larger deficits are noted over
southeastern coast of southern peninsular India, parts of  Cambodia,
southern Vietnam, Papua New Guinea, and south eastern coastal Australia.
Elsewhere the rainfall amounts are near normal to above normal.

In this past week, the observed rainfall amounts have generally been mostly
positive everywhere across the region, except over Cambodia, Vietnam and
Papua New Guinea.  In the upcoming two weeks, the NCEP GFS model generally
predicts below normal rainfall over much of the whole region, except over
parts of northeast India, Burma, Vietnam, the Philippines and some eastern
parts of Australia.

*South American Monsoons:*

Long-term rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin, Brazilian
Plateau and southern Brazil.

During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over much
of the northern South America and Brazil.  Above-average precipitation was
observed over portions of northern Brazil as well as the extreme southern
Brazil and eastern Colombia.

For Days 1-7 (16-22 Oct 2017), below-average precipitation is predicted
over much of northern and central Brazil, as well as western Colombia and
southern Chile. Above-average precipitation is predicted for the extreme
southern Brazil, Uruguay and southern Paraguay.

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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