[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Oct 2 16:03:49 UTC 2017

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons:*

Weekly total rainfall exceeded 100mm over parts of Cote d’Ivoire, local
areas in Nigeria and Central African Republic (CAR) and parts of western
Ethiopia. In contrast below-average rainfall was observed over many paces
in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over southern Sierra Leone, Liberia, western Cote d'Ivoire, parts of
Angola, and eastern South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland. In contrast, there
is an increased chance for below-average rainfall over southeastern Mali,
Burkina Faso, northern Cote d'Ivoire, portions of Ghana, Togo, Benin,
portions of Nigeria, and portions of South Sudan, northeastern DRC, and
northern Uganda.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*

For the past 90 days, below normal rainfall deficits remain in general over
parts of central India, Koreas, Japan, coastal eastern China, Papua New
Guinea, and parts of south eastern Australia. Elsewhere the monsoon
rainfall is at normal to above normal levels. For the past 30 days,  below
normal rainfall deficits are noted over northern and north central India,
parts of Japan, Koreas, eastern China, Thailand Cambodia, southern Vietnam,
Papua New Guinea, and south eastern coastal Australia. Elsewhere the
rainfall amounts are normal to above normal.

In this past week, the observed rainfall amounts have been highly deficient
over central India, elsewhere there is nothing noteworthy elsewhere. The
Indian summer monsoon rainfall season (JJAS) has officially ended, and the
winter monsoon combined with the tropical storm/cyclone season (OND) over
southern India has just begun. For the Indian summer total rainfall
totals,  the official numbers from the IMD is not in yet, but the
preliminary number is about 5% below the long term mean.    In the upcoming
week, the NCEP GFS model predicts below normal rainfall over central India,
southern and southeastern China. Elsewhere, the monsoon is in a withdrawal
phase from northern and central India.

*South American Monsoons:*

Long-term rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin, Brazilian
Plateau and southern Brazil.

During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over areas
in the northern South America as well as central and southern Brazil.
Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of southern
Colombia, Bolivia, and eastern Argentina.

For Days 1-7 (02-08 Oct 2017), below-average precipitation is predicted
over much of southern Venezuela, western Colombia, the Amazon Basin, as
well as southern Peru and Bolivia.  Above-average precipitation is
predicted for the extreme southern Brazil, southern Paraguay, southern
Chile and southern Ecuador.

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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