[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Jan 9 16:49:16 UTC 2017

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons:*

Above-average rainfall was observed over many places in the Southern Africa
countries, whereas rainfall deficits exceeded 25mm over parts of Angola and

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over southeastern Angola, eastern Namibia, western and northern Botswana,
southern Zambia, Zimbabwe, Malawi, and  Mozambique. In contrast, there is
an increased chance for below-average rainfall over portions of Angola,
DRC, Tanzania, and Madagascar.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*

For the past 90 days, severe rainfall deficits remain over southern
peninsular India, especially along coastal Tamilnadu state,  and over large
parts of central, northern and eastern Australia. Elsewhere, the rainfall
is at above normal levels over much of the region, especially eastern
China, the Philippines and large parts of Indonesia. For the past 30 days
the rainfall was  below normal over southern Sumatra and southeastern
Queensland,  but above normal over northwestern Australia. Elsewhere in the
large monsoon region, the rainfall pattern is mixed.

In this past week, as predicted last week, many parts of northern Australia
received heavy rainfall. The northeast winter monsoon (Oct-Dec) is
officially over southern peninsular India and ended with severe rainfall
deficits and severe drought thus affecting the agricultural output and loss
of hundreds of farmers’  lives in the state of Tamilnadu, India, according
to news media reports. In the next couple of weeks the NCEP GFS model is
predicting above normal rainfall for northwestern Australia and
southeastern China.

*South American Monsoons:*

Long-term rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin and central

During the last 7 days (02 - 08 Jan 2017), below-average precipitation was
observed over much of Brazil and Bolivia. Above-average precipitation was
observed over Ecuador, northern Peru, eastern Argentina, northern Uruguay
and the extreme southern Brazil.

For 09 - 15 Jan 2017, below-average precipitation is predicted over much of
Bolivia, northern and central Brazil, as well as southern Chile.
Above-average precipitation is predicted for portions of Ecuador, Peru,
southern Brazil, northern Argentina and northern Chile.

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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