[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Tue Jan 3 16:38:22 UTC 2017

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons:*

Moderate to locally heavy rainfall resulted in moisture surpluses over
portions of Botswana, Zimbabwe and southern Mozambique. In contrast, much
of Malawi, southern Tanzania, northern Mozambique and much of Madagascar
had below-average rainfall.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over southeastern Angola, eastern Namibia, much of Botswana, Zambia,
Zimbabwe, portions of South Africa, Malawi, and northern Mozambique. In
contrast, there is an increased chance for below-average rainfall over
southwestern Angola, Burundi and portions of Tanzania.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*

For the past 90 days, severe rainfall deficits remain over southern
peninsular India, especially along coastal Tamilnadu state,  and over large
parts of central, northern and eastern Australia. Elsewhere, the rainfall
is at above normal levels over much of the region, especially eastern
China, the Philippines and large parts of Indonesia. For the past 30 days
the rainfall was  below normal over southern Sumatra and southeastern
Queensland,  but above normal over northwestern Australia.

In this past week, as predicted last week, many parts of northern Australia
received heavy rainfall. According to the India Met. Dept. (IMD), with the
Northeast winter monsoon(OND) ending, the rainfall for southern India
continues to stay highly deficient by as much as  -62 % for the state of
Tamilnadu (through Dec.28) and -45% across the country. With the severe
failure of the winter monsoon so far, severe drought conditions continue
exist in the southern India especially in the state of Tamilnadu. In the
next couple of weeks the NCEP GFS model is predicting above normal rainfall
for many parts of Australia and eastern China.

*South American Monsoons:*

Long-term rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin and central

During the last 7 days (26 Dec 2016 – 01 Jan 2017), below-average
precipitation was observed over much of central Brazil, eastern Bolivia,
southern Chile and northern Argentina. Above-average precipitation was
observed over eastern Argentina, Uruguay, northern and southern Brazil.

For 02 - 08 Jan 2017, below-average precipitation is predicted over much of
Bolivia, northern and central Brazil.  Above-average precipitation is
predicted for portions of Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, southern Brazil, eastern
Argentina and Uruguay.

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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