[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

[Wei Shi - NOAA Federal]

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons
website:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml

*HIGHLIGHTS:*



*African Monsoons (AFMS.ppt):*



Portions of South Sudan and western Ethiopia continued to receive
above-average rainfall. Moderate to heavy rainfall was also observed over
many places in Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana.



Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for below-average rainfall
over portions of Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, western Nigeria,
northeastern DRC, southern South Sudan Republic and northern Uganda. In
contrast, there is an increased chance for above-average rainfall over
eastern Nigeria, much of Cameroon, and northern Gabon.



*Asian-Australian Monsoons (AAMS.ppt):*



For the past 90 days rainfall amounts are showing deficits to various
extents over large parts of Australia, southwestern southern peninsular
India, and southeast Asian countries such as Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, and
Cambodia, the Philippines and eastern Papua New Guinea.  However,
northeastern India, Burma, coastal southeastern China and many parts of
Indonesia received  above normal rainfall. For the past 30 days the
rainfall situation was deficient over Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, the
Philippines islands, and eastern Australia. However, northeast India,
Burma, and parts of  southeastern China and Indonesia had received more
rainfall.



In this past week, rainfall was deficient along the Western Ghats of
southern peninsular India, and it was sporadic across southeast Asia.  Earlier,
the India Met Dept (IMD) had announced the Indian summer southwest monsoon
onset over Kerala on the 7th of June, about a week later than normal. Now,
there is confusion reg. the onset forecast for the monsoon this year,
between the official meteorological agency IMD, and the major private
weather forecasters group, the SkyMeT.  There is no clear forecast onset
date available.   In the next couple of weeks the NCEP GFS model is
predicting slightly above normal rainfall in interior southern peninsular
India during first week, but below normal rainfall for the second week.  Also
in this second week, very strangely, the model predicts above normal
rainfall along central western and northwestern India, ahead of the
traditional monsoon onset further to the south.





*South American Monsoons (SAMS.ppt):*



Long-term rainfall deficits continue over the Amazon Basin and central
Brazil. The rainy season has ended over central Brazil.



During the last 7 days (23-29 May 2016), below-average precipitation was
observed over southern Venezuela, northern Brazil, southern Brazil and
southern Chile.  Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of
Colombia, extreme northern Peru, central Paraguay and southwest Brazil.



For  30 May-5 June 2016, below-average precipitation is predicted portions
of northern South America, extreme southern Brazil, Uruguay, northeastern
Argentina and southern Chile. Above-average precipitation is predicted for
Ecuador and Brazil, between 20S and 25S.



Note: This is the last SAMS update for the 2015-2016 wet season. A summary
of the season will be available on 6 June.




*For questions or comments, please contact:


Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Vernon.Kousky at noaa.gov (for South American monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for North American monsoon update and for general issues
about the CPC Global Monsoons products)
*---------------------------------------------------------------------------
   *
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Meteorologist
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
USA
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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