[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Jun 6 15:59:35 UTC 2016

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons:*

Below-average rainfall was observed over many places in West Africa.

Northern Congo-Brazzaville, northern DRC, CAR, western South Sudan and
western Ethiopia received above-average rainfall.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
throughout portions of Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Burkina Faso,
Nigeria, Cameroon, CAR, and southern Chad. In contrast, there is an
increased chance for below-average rainfall over portions of northern DRC,
Uganda, and South Sudan.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*

For the past 90 days rainfall amounts are showing deficits to various
extents over large parts of Australia, southwestern southern peninsular
India, and southeast Asian countries such as Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, and
Cambodia, the Philippines and eastern Papua New Guinea.  However,
northeastern India, Burma, coastal southeastern China and many parts of
Indonesia received  above normal rainfall. For the past 30 days the
rainfall situation was deficient over Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, the
Philippines islands and parts of New Guinea. However, coastal eastern
India, northeast India, Burma, and parts of  southeastern China and
Indonesia had received more rainfall.

In this past week,  rainfall is near normal across India, but deficient
over northeastern India, Cambodia, Laos and parts of Indonesia. There is
confusion reg. the onset forecast for the monsoon this year, between the
official meteorological agency IMD, and the major private weather
forecasters the SkyMeT. Lastly, the IMD has announced that favorable
conditions now exist for monsoon onset over south India in the next 2-3
days. In the next couple of weeks the NCEP GFS model is predicting near to
below normal rainfall in the next couple of weeks over southern India,
below normal rainfall over Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam.

*North American Monsoons:*

During the last 7 days (30May-05June 2016), below-average precipitation was
observed over southern Mexico.

For 06-12 June 2016, the NCEP/GFS Forecasts call for above-average
precipitation over southern Mexico and portions of northwestern Mexico.

*South American Monsoons:*

The South American Monsoon System wet season has ended. The annual summary
will be available on the CPC web site beginning 8 June 2016.

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Vernon.Kousky at noaa.gov (for South American monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for North American monsoon update and for general issues
about the CPC Global Monsoons products)

Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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