[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

[Wei Shi - NOAA Federal]

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems (SAMS.ppt, AFMS.ppt and AAMS.ppt) have been
updated on the CPC Global Monsoons website:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml

*HIGHLIGHTS:*



*African Monsoons (AFMS.ppt):*



Moderate to heavy rainfall resulted in moisture surpluses over many parts
of Ethiopia, and coastal East Africa.



Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over southern Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Congo Brazzaville, and
portions of western DRC. In contrast, there is an increased chance for
below-average rainfall over central and southern Ethiopia, and the
neighboring places of northeastern Kenya and southern Somalia.



*Asian-Australian Monsoons (AAMS.ppt):*



For the past 90 days, the precipitation pattern over eastern Afghanistan,
northern Pakistan, and northern (particularly Kashmir) and northcentral
India was at near to slightly above normal levels for this time of the year.
Rainfall was also much above normal over Borneo island. However, rainfall
was below to much below normal elsewhere over southern Philippines,
southeastern China across Malaysia, Indonesia and across entire northern
and north central Australia. For the past 30 days, the precipitation over
southern India, northeast India, Nepal, and Bangladesh and vicinity was
normal to above normal for this time of the year.  However, rainfall was
much below normal over southeastern China, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, parts
of Indonesia and papa New Guinea. Overall, precipitation over Australia was
near normal for the previous thirty days.



In this past week, the precipitation over the entire region was at or below
normal levels except over parts of  Malaysia/Borneo island and along all
across  eastern China, where it was above normal. In the next couple of
weeks, the NCEP GFS model is predicting above normal precipitation over
much of southern India, especially along the broad western and eastern
coastal regions of southern peninsular India. It is not clear if this can
be considered the onset of 2015 southwest monsoon, since the official and
normal onset of the monsoon does not happen until the last week of May to
the first week of June.





*South American Monsoons (SAMS.ppt):*



Large long-term rainfall deficits remain over the southern Amazon Basin and
portions of central Brazil.



During the last 7 days (4-10 May 2015), below-average precipitation was
observed over northern South America, extreme southern Brazil and
Uruguay.  Above-average
precipitation was observed over portions of eastern Bolivia, southern
Paraguay and southwestern Brazil.



For 11-17 May 2015, below-average precipitation is predicted for extreme
northern South America, the eastern and central Amazon Basin, northern
Northeast Brazil and southern Brazil. Above-average precipitation is
indicated for southern Colombia, northern Peru and extreme western Brazil.




*For questions or comments, please contact:


Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Vernon.Kousky at noaa.gov (for South American monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for North American monsoon update and for general issues
about the CPC Global Monsoons products)
*---------------------------------------------------------------------------
   *
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Meteorologist
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
USA
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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