[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Nov 17 16:49:08 UTC 2014

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems (SAMS.ppt, AFMS.ppt and AAMS.ppt) have been
updated on the CPC Global Monsoons website:


*African Monsoons (AFMS.ppt):*

Above-average rainfall was observed over portions of eastern Kenya and
southern Somalia, western Zambia, southern Zimbabwe and central South

Suppressed rainfall continued to prevail over northern Angola, southern
DRC, and portions of East and Southeast Africa.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over much of Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Congo-Brazzaville, western DRC,
portions of northern Angola, northern Mozambique, southern Tanzania,
eastern Kenya, southeastern Ethiopia and southern Somalia. In contrast,
there is an increased chance for below-average rainfall over much of
Zimbabwe, and portions of eastern Botswana, northern South Africa and
western Mozambique.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons (AAMS.ppt):*

For the past 90 days, the rainfall pattern over central and northern India
is below normal, while it is above normal over eastern India and Nepal.
Rainfall over eastern China and Philippines is mostly above normal.
Elsewhere across maritime Indonesia and over eastern half of Australia, it
is below normal. For the past 30 days, rainfall is below normal over the
Philippines and eastern Australia, whereas it is slightly above or near
normal over southern India and eastern China.

In this past week, the Northeast winter monsoon over southern India was
very seasonal with plenty of rainfall in that region. For the next couple
of weeks, the NCEP GFS model predicts near to below normal rainfall across
the region except for pockets of above normal rainfall over parts of
Indonesia, northwestern Australia and eastern China.

*South American Monsoons (SAMS.ppt):*

Rainfall deficits increase over central Brazil and the southern Amazon

During the last 7 days (10-16 November 2014), below-average precipitation
was observed over portions of central Brazil, southern Brazil, and eastern
Argentina.  Above-average precipitation was observed over Colombia,
northern Peru, northern Bolivia and eastern Brazil (15S-20S).

For 17-23 November 2014, below average precipitation is predicted for
portions of central and southeastern Brazil, the western Amazon Basin,
northern Peru, extreme southern Brazil and northeastern Argentina.
Above-average precipitation is predicted for northern Northeast Brazil and
portions of the eastern Amazon Basin.

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Vernon.Kousky at noaa.gov (for South American monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for North American monsoon update and for general issues
about the CPC Global Monsoons products)

Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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