[Ncep.hmon] HWRF-HYCOM-WW3 runs for Michael 2018

Hyun-Sook Kim - NOAA Affiliate hyun.sook.kim at noaa.gov
Tue Apr 30 14:09:02 UTC 2019


Avichal and Vijay,

As you may know, I have been doing sensitivity study of 3-way coupled
HWRF-HYCOM-WW3 for Michael (14L) 2018.

This 3-way configuration includes: 1. enhanced KPP mixing using Langmuir
turbulence; and 2. wave-ocean current interactions forced by
Coriolis-Stokes stress which is averaged mean surface value.

The graphics include 5 experiments, primarily estimates of velocity scale
for turbulence mixing.
Only one (HW32) includes buoyancy flux that include additional instability
or roughness estimates.

Conclusion based on this experiment,
Track forecast is best with HW34 (gray), followed by HW31 (yellow).
As for intensity forecast, HW35 (black) shows good skill, followed by HW33
(magenta), HW34/HW31.

All the 3-way coupling experiments outperform S219 (green; S218_new2018)).

As for comparisons of 2-way coupling (S219=HWRF-POM) and H219=HWRF-HYCOM),
S219 (green) predicts better track, but H219 (blue) shows better intensity
forecast.


Let me know if you have any questions.

Best,

hyun-sook



-- 

Hyun-Sook Kim
NOAA Center for Weather & Climate Prediction
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
(o)301-683-3760
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