[Ncep.nhc.nco_contacts] TAFB Shift Log -- Technical Edition -- Sun Jun 18, 2017
TAFB Shift Log
nhc.tsbadmin at noaa.gov
Sun Jun 18 09:13:33 UTC 2017
TAFB Shift Log for Sun Jun 18 2017 05:13:26 GMT-0400 (EDT)
Pacific Forecaster: J Lewitsky
Atlantic Forecaster: J Aguirre-Echevarria
Surface Analyst: M Tichacek
Technical Issues Summary:
GFE/NCP issues: Strange chat messages originated from OPC Atlantic High
Seas (see below)... (07:59:44) OPC Atlantic High Seas 1: Hi TAFB: I see
your prelim file, but it only has isobars west of 65W in the Atlantic.
(08:13:16) OPC Pacific High Seas 1: TAFB, the 06z prelim is ready.
(08:17:50) TAFB TAFB Atlantic Desk1 1: opc: hello ! do you see the 06z
analysis now ? (08:18:15) OPC Atlantic High Seas 1: TAFB: Yes...but the map
has already been sent. (08:18:48) TAFB TAFB Atlantic Desk1 1: opc: were you
interested in coordinating about a feature ? (08:20:37) OPC Atlantic High
Seas 1: TAFB: Last night I noticed several of my isobars were redrawn in my
area and didn't match the obs, so I just wanted to avoid this if possible.
(08:21:20) TAFB TAFB Atlantic Desk1 1: opc: i do not remember any of that
happening. (08:22:28) OPC Atlantic High Seas 1: TAFB: Ok, thanks for
chatting back! Have a good night. (08:38:21) TAFB TAFB Atlantic Desk1 1:
opc: i am returning to you the 06z unified surface map analysis. (08:43:43)
OPC Atlantic High Seas 1: We received it TAFB, thank you!
Miscellaneous issues: Bruce Sullivan from WPC called at 330am LT asking to
speak with Dr. Landsea. We told Bruce that Dr. Landsea had gone home as he
worked the evening shift and that there was no one currently in the HSU.
Bruce wanted to let us know about a Collaboration chat message received
from WFO Mobile (see below). Bruce asked if the HSU routinely uses the
Collaboration software. "(06:57:15) WPC MEDR PRESS 1: MOB Long Term-Yes, as
the day shift crew conference call with NHC and their forecast agreement
resulted in a solution that had the least overlap with the GFS and gave
more weighting towards the other models like the ukmet/ecmwf/ecmwf ensemble
mean. I didn't want to make big changes as NHC generally likes to keep
continuity in their forecasts. The 00z gfs remains the northeast outlier in
the suite of solutions. We have low confidence in the 00z gfs, which dumps
a 16 inch rainfall maxima near the FL/GA/AL border for the 48 hour period
ending 12z Thu. Dan " The SDM called at 242am LT asking for the files to
run the hurricane models. We were briefed by the "R shift" that the files
were submitted prior to 2am LT when the shift departed but the SDM did not
receive them. We told the SDM that there was no one here in HSU and that
TAFB did not have the ability to submit anything for them. The SDM called
back 5 minutes later and asked if we could call a specialist at home to
submit the request from home but we told them that we were not aware of a
way for it to be requested from home. The SDM was briefed that a specialist
should be in between 6-7am. UPDATE: We noticed 06z track data for Invest
93L on external websites so not sure what issue the SDM had? (07:41:29) WPC
Day 2/3 QPF 1: Gulf Coast offices...Just sent an updated QPF...although
made only minor changes from the 06Z issuance. Mainly light QPF was spread
out along the Gulf coast given the uncertainity with the tropical
disturbance. Current plan is to go with no day 3 excessive rainfall area
given the low confidence and yesterday's NHC/WPC preferred southern track.
Based on recent trends an argument could be made for introducing a marginal
risk along the central Gulf Coast. Leaning towards holding off for now
though and letting the day shift take another look unless there are any
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