[Ncep.nhc.nco_contacts] TAFB Shift Log -- Technical Edition -- Sun Jun 18, 2017

TAFB Shift Log nhc.tsbadmin at noaa.gov
Sun Jun 18 09:13:33 UTC 2017

TAFB Shift Log for Sun Jun 18 2017 05:13:26 GMT-0400 (EDT)

Shift: Mid-Shift

Pacific Forecaster: J Lewitsky

Atlantic Forecaster: J Aguirre-Echevarria

Surface Analyst: M Tichacek

Technical Issues Summary:

GFE/NCP issues: Strange chat messages originated from OPC Atlantic High  
Seas (see below)... (07:59:44) OPC Atlantic High Seas 1: Hi TAFB: I see  
your prelim file, but it only has isobars west of 65W in the Atlantic.  
(08:13:16) OPC Pacific High Seas 1: TAFB, the 06z prelim is ready.  
(08:17:50) TAFB TAFB Atlantic Desk1 1: opc: hello ! do you see the 06z  
analysis now ? (08:18:15) OPC Atlantic High Seas 1: TAFB: Yes...but the map  
has already been sent. (08:18:48) TAFB TAFB Atlantic Desk1 1: opc: were you  
interested in coordinating about a feature ? (08:20:37) OPC Atlantic High  
Seas 1: TAFB: Last night I noticed several of my isobars were redrawn in my  
area and didn't match the obs, so I just wanted to avoid this if possible.  
(08:21:20) TAFB TAFB Atlantic Desk1 1: opc: i do not remember any of that  
happening. (08:22:28) OPC Atlantic High Seas 1: TAFB: Ok, thanks for  
chatting back! Have a good night. (08:38:21) TAFB TAFB Atlantic Desk1 1:  
opc: i am returning to you the 06z unified surface map analysis. (08:43:43)  
OPC Atlantic High Seas 1: We received it TAFB, thank you!

N-AWIPS issues:

Other issues:

Miscellaneous issues: Bruce Sullivan from WPC called at 330am LT asking to  
speak with Dr. Landsea. We told Bruce that Dr. Landsea had gone home as he  
worked the evening shift and that there was no one currently in the HSU.  
Bruce wanted to let us know about a Collaboration chat message received  
from WFO Mobile (see below). Bruce asked if the HSU routinely uses the  
Collaboration software. "(06:57:15) WPC MEDR PRESS 1: MOB Long Term-Yes, as  
the day shift crew conference call with NHC and their forecast agreement  
resulted in a solution that had the least overlap with the GFS and gave  
more weighting towards the other models like the ukmet/ecmwf/ecmwf ensemble  
mean. I didn't want to make big changes as NHC generally likes to keep  
continuity in their forecasts. The 00z gfs remains the northeast outlier in  
the suite of solutions. We have low confidence in the 00z gfs, which dumps  
a 16 inch rainfall maxima near the FL/GA/AL border for the 48 hour period  
ending 12z Thu. Dan " The SDM called at 242am LT asking for the files to  
run the hurricane models. We were briefed by the "R shift" that the files  
were submitted prior to 2am LT when the shift departed but the SDM did not  
receive them. We told the SDM that there was no one here in HSU and that  
TAFB did not have the ability to submit anything for them. The SDM called  
back 5 minutes later and asked if we could call a specialist at home to  
submit the request from home but we told them that we were not aware of a  
way for it to be requested from home. The SDM was briefed that a specialist  
should be in between 6-7am. UPDATE: We noticed 06z track data for Invest  
93L on external websites so not sure what issue the SDM had? (07:41:29) WPC  
Day 2/3 QPF 1: Gulf Coast offices...Just sent an updated QPF...although  
made only minor changes from the 06Z issuance. Mainly light QPF was spread  
out along the Gulf coast given the uncertainity with the tropical  
disturbance. Current plan is to go with no day 3 excessive rainfall area  
given the low confidence and yesterday's NHC/WPC preferred southern track.  
Based on recent trends an argument could be made for introducing a marginal  
risk along the central Gulf Coast. Leaning towards holding off for now  
though and letting the day shift take another look unless there are any  
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