[Ncep.nhc.nco_contacts] TSB Morning Rounds - Thu Aug 10, 2017
Matthew Sardi - NOAA Federal
matthew.sardi at noaa.gov
Thu Aug 10 16:33:57 UTC 2017
Update on HSU item #2 from Mark DeMaria:
Matt O and Mark confirmed that the limited area of 64 kt wind speed
probabilities (WSP) from the 03Z advisory from Hurricane Franklin was due
to the max winds in the forecast decreasing from 75 kt to 35 kt in the
first 12 hr. The WSP program does not make use of the intensity estimate at
synoptic time. The problem is caused by the linear interpolation of the 12
hr forecast intensities to the 1 hr intensities for the WSP calculation.
That interpolation also sometimes causes a high bias for cases where
consecutive forecast points are over water, but the track is over land
between the forecast points. A solution for the high bias is already being
developed for implementation in 2018, which will also address the problem
seen for Hurricane Franklin.
NHC/Technology & Science Branch
On Thu, Aug 10, 2017 at 11:24 AM, TSB Admin <nhc.tsbadmin at noaa.gov> wrote:
> Here is today's summary of NHC computer operations:
> --- Matt Sardi
> 1. Last night both TAFB and HSU reported serious issues on several ops
> servers (ATCF, comp servers) and workstations, including lost netapp
> mounts and workstations freezing up forcing them to restart. Doug Gaer and
> remote NCO staff troubleshot problem, was traced to bug with rpcbind that
> causes crashes. Decision was made to put the bug fix in this morning.
> 1. Chris Landsea tried running the new Targeting program from the Pacific
> ATCF workstation last night on shift. Unfortunately, it did not run
> successfully, nor was he able to view variance. It may have been user error
> or perhaps a consequence of the technical hurdles that occurred at NHC
> yesterday. Anu will investigate, Craig/Matt will follow up.
> 2. Hurricane wind probs from 03Z advisory were not reasonable. It only
> showed a spot value north of the center and did not extend the values to
> the coast. This may be related to the large reduction of intensity in the
> 12 hr forecast (75 kt initially down to 35 kt at 12 hr). Mark DeMaria et
> al. are investigating.
> *Other items:*
> *NHC RFCs:*
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