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    Jeff<br>
    <br>
    You can also use the Gauge Comparison Tool on the NSSL MRMS
    development site to do real-time and archived comparisons.  You can
    select the operational (NCO OPS section in the pull-down), or the
    developmental version of the MRMS Q3 products.<br>
    <br>
    <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://mrms-dev.nssl.noaa.gov/">https://mrms-dev.nssl.noaa.gov/</a><br>
    <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://mrms-dev.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/gauge_vs_qpe.php">https://mrms-dev.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/gauge_vs_qpe.php</a><br>
    <br>
    Jeff W<br>
    <br>
    <br>
    <br>
    <div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 6/22/2018 3:38 PM, Michael Magsig -
      NOAA Federal wrote:<br>
    </div>
    <blockquote type="cite"
      cite="mid:6b95c137-f499-c014-1837-7007f28c65ae@noaa.gov">
      <meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8">
      <p>Hi Jeff,</p>
      <p>Have you downloaded our AWIPS bundles from RAC to compare the
        precip sources? Here is the RAC Procedures Download Page (note
        you can find this on AWIPS by doing a manual AIR search for rac
        using the right click on any CAVE text legend):</p>
      <p><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
          href="https://vlab.ncep.noaa.gov/web/wdtd/racproc"
          moz-do-not-send="true">https://vlab.ncep.noaa.gov/web/wdtd/racproc</a><br>
      </p>
      <p> We have a methodology for quickly assessing differences in
        precip type for choosing the best precip source and identifying
        things like melting hail contamination that causes high biases
        in Dual Pol QPE. A difference like this will stick out like a
        sore thumb in the instantaneous rate six panel (see image
        below). You should be able to see how the rates compare to
        Legacy and Dual Pol and see if there is anything unusual in the
        patterns of surface precip type. Most likely it is triggering
        the tropical convective if it is overestimating. Watch for
        temporal continuity in SPT during the period of heaviest
        rainfall and see if it is missing any hail signals in the base
        data.<br>
      </p>
      <p>I've been looking at a number of heavy rainfall events
        throughout the country for our flash flood training development,
        and my perception is that MRMS tends to perform a little better
        than Dual Pol which performs a bit better than Legacy most of
        the time but it varies by environment/season and can change
        during an event, so we recommend starting each event assessing
        if you have any significant differences between sources and
        choosing a source that looks to be the most reasonable to start
        with. Then spot check your precip sources routinely during an
        event to see who is doing best where it matters most. MRMS
        typically shines in hail contamination events because its rate
        cap is 2"/hr for hail which usually lowers MRMS estimates
        significantly (which is fine until you have heavy rainfall rates
        &gt;2"/hr with hail). MRMS overestimates like your case are
        usually tropical convective SPT when it shouldn't be or MRMS not
        identifying hail.<br>
      </p>
      <p>Differences of 10-25% are common among all our operational
        precip sources, and I routinely find differences of 50% or
        larger at times during heavy rainfall. The biases can sometimes
        vary spatially and temporally in an event (and during the
        seasons) for all precip sources, so we preach using all of your
        observations and giving more weight to those in the strongest
        cores for flash flood warnings, and only use the mean field bias
        corrections or the MRMS spatially varying corrections as a first
        guess. Also pay extra attention to MRMS biases because those
        biases will propagate to the FLASH streamflows.<br>
      </p>
      <p>Accurate QPE is still a challenge for all of today's
        algorithms, and those who rely too heavily on the precip source
        that worked in the previous event are going to be susceptible to
        unpleasant surprises (I see that a lot actually with many
        offices). Maybe we will have more consistent separation for MRMS
        when it starts using Dual Pol variables in one of the next
        versions, but I foresee the best warning performance coming from
        carefully selecting and re-assessing your precip source and
        blending that with the new streamflow products. <br>
      </p>
      <p>At least the MRMS overestimates out west should be addressed
        now that 11.5 has allowed continental ZRs instead of just
        tropical ZR for heavy rainfall. Feel free to share some of your
        MRMS screen captures with me offline, as I enjoy the challenge
        of quickly getting to the bottom line for the differences in
        QPE.<br>
      </p>
      <p><img src="cid:part2.8F72188B.F71832CE@noaa.gov" alt="" class=""></p>
      <p>Mike<br>
      </p>
      <br>
      <div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 6/22/2018 12:55 PM, Jeffrey Hovis
        - NOAA Federal wrote:<br>
      </div>
      <blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:LYRIS-21262-562610-2018.06.22-13.56.12--Michael.A.Magsig%23noaa.gov@infolist.nws.noaa.gov">
        <div dir="ltr">All,
          <div><br>
          </div>
          <div>I want to thank everyone for answering.  It did answer
            some of my questions.  I am going to read through everything
            and see where</div>
          <div>I go with any additional questions.</div>
          <div><br>
          </div>
          <div><br>
          </div>
          <div>Jeff</div>
          <div><br>
          </div>
          <div> </div>
          <div class="gmail_extra"> <br>
            <div class="gmail_quote">On Fri, Jun 22, 2018 at 10:54 AM,
              Joseph Moore - NOAA Federal <span dir="ltr">&lt;<a
                  href="mailto:joseph.moore@noaa.gov" target="_blank"
                  moz-do-not-send="true">joseph.moore@noaa.gov</a>&gt;</span>
              wrote:<br>
              <blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0
                .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
                <div dir="ltr">
                  <div>Jeffery, I'll definitely agree with you that for
                    where the most precip fell, MRMS was on the hot side
                    (mrms-radar-only.PNG). The gauge-adjusted product
                    doesn't seem to have really changed much of that
                    (mrms-gauge-adj.PNG), though looking at the
                    diagnostic provided by MRMS (the <i>Gauge Influence
                      Index</i>, viewable on MRMS Op Product Viewer
                    site) there doesn't appear to be <i>any </i>gauge
                    correction going on anywhere right now or in the
                    past 24 hours for any precip accumulation timeframe.
                    (<b>I think the issue of no gauge adjustment
                      happening is an actual problem with MRMS, so I'm
                      looping the MRMS Users email list on this thread</b>.)<br>
                  </div>
                  <div><br>
                  </div>
                  <div>Compared to the RLX radar (STA, STA-hires, and
                    STP images), the MRMS data certainly has a broader
                    area of 3"+ and a fairly broad area of 4"+ compared
                    to the legacy and dual-pol estimates. So even
                    compared to other precip estimates, MRMS seems on
                    the high side. Why the MRMS estimates are running
                    too hot? As I said in my first message, it is
                    probably a case of mis-classification of the type of
                    rainfall occurring - maybe using the tropical
                    algorithm when it should be using a standard
                    convection one. Looking through the Reflectivity
                    Cube (see the Op Product Viewer), during the most
                    intense parts of the rain yesterday MRMS certainly
                    seems to have ingested your radar and surrounding
                    radars correctly with no gross errors obvious to me.
                    The MRMS Ops folks on the Users listserv may be able
                    to diagnose what's going on in this case better than
                    I can.</div>
                  <div><br>
                  </div>
                  <div>We can't expect MRMS to be perfect, just like we
                    know the radar-based legacy and dual-pol estimates
                    are going to have errors for various reasons. For
                    what it's worth, on our recent heavy rainfall event
                    last weekend MRMS absolutely <i>nailed </i>the
                    precip estimation with no strong high or low bias -
                    it got the maximum amounts just about as spot-on as
                    you can expect... and that was with our primary
                    radar down! (MPX's radar provided sufficient radar
                    data to help fill in the gap to our radar being
                    down, but at a higher elevation than DLH would have
                    been scanning if it were up.) <br>
                  </div>
                  <div><br>
                  </div>
                  <div>If there is a noticeable problem with MRMS data,
                    this should be reported to the MRMS/NCEP folks so
                    they can investigate (I think <i><a
                        href="mailto:ncep.list.idp.mrms.users@noaa.gov"
                        target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">ncep.list.idp.mrms.users@noaa.<wbr>gov</a></i>
                    is the best choice but someone else chime in there's
                    a better option!)</div>
                  <div><br>
                  </div>
                  <div>-Joe<br>
                  </div>
                  <div><br>
                  </div>
                  <div>MRMS Op Product Viewer: <a
                      href="https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_viewer.php"
                      target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs<wbr>/product_viewer.php</a></div>
                  <div>WRH Wx and Hazard Viewer: <a
                      href="https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/"
                      target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/</a></div>
                  <div><br>
                  </div>
                  <div><br>
                  </div>
                </div>
                <div class="gmail_extra"><br>
                  <div class="gmail_quote"><span class="">On Fri, Jun
                      22, 2018 at 9:19 AM, Timothy Humphrey - NOAA
                      Federal <span dir="ltr">&lt;<a
                          href="mailto:timothy.humphrey@noaa.gov"
                          target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">timothy.humphrey@noaa.gov</a>&gt;</span>
                      wrote:<br>
                    </span>
                    <blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0
                      .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><span
                        class="">
                        <div dir="ltr">Over the past several days here
                          at the Lake Charles office, we also noticed
                          that the MRMS-QPE Radar only was running quite
                          hot compared to our individual radars'
                          estimates and surface observations. Comparing
                          this morning's 12Z 72 hour MRMS estimates to a
                          variety of observation sites including
                          ASOS/ALERT/COOP confirmed this with a few
                          comparisons listed below:
                          <div><br>
                          </div>
                          <div>JYDT2: 7.91"  MRMS: 10.33"</div>
                          <div>JYET2: 7.76"  MRMS: 13.18"<br>
                            <div>JYGT2: 6.38"  MRMS: 7.48"</div>
                            <div>KBPT:  5.79"  MRMS: 8.11"</div>
                            <div>ORNT2: 4.91" MRMS: 6.06"</div>
                            <div><br>
                            </div>
                            <div>Based on our experience, the QPE-Radar
                              Only seemed that it was running much
                              hotter compared to previous events and we
                              were also curious what might have been
                              causing such a large difference. Our
                              concern is that these large differences
                              could result in derived FLASH products
                              being less reliable for warning decision
                              making.<br>
                            </div>
                          </div>
                        </div>
                      </span>
                      <div class="gmail_extra">
                        <div>
                          <div class="h5">
                            <div>
                              <div class="m_-251700852220942345h5"><br>
                                <div class="gmail_quote">On Fri, Jun 22,
                                  2018 at 8:54 AM, Jeffrey Hovis - NOAA
                                  Federal <span dir="ltr">&lt;<a
                                      href="mailto:jeffrey.hovis@noaa.gov"
                                      target="_blank"
                                      moz-do-not-send="true">jeffrey.hovis@noaa.gov</a>&gt;</span>
                                  wrote:<br>
                                  <blockquote class="gmail_quote"
                                    style="margin:0 0 0
                                    .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc
                                    solid;padding-left:1ex">
                                    <div dir="ltr">Jack,
                                      <div><br>
                                      </div>
                                      <div>It was approximately 10 miles
                                        from the area of heaviest
                                        rainfall to the radar site (RLX)
                                        .  As you indicated, COOPS are
                                        not included in the MRMS data.</div>
                                      <div><br>
                                      </div>
                                      <div>I just wanted to see what
                                        might have caused the large
                                        difference in rainfall
                                        amounts.  </div>
                                      <div><br>
                                      </div>
                                      <div>We issued a Flash Flood
                                        Warning based on the MRMS data. 
                                        It was a good warning as we did
                                        have lots of flash flooding
                                        reports. </div>
                                      <div><br>
                                      </div>
                                      <div>Jeff</div>
                                      <div>
                                        <div
                                          class="m_-251700852220942345m_7024192615613847659h5">
                                          <div><br>
                                          </div>
                                          <div class="gmail_extra">
                                            <div class="gmail_quote">On
                                              Fri, Jun 22, 2018 at 9:42
                                              AM, Jack Settelmaier -
                                              NOAA Federal <span
                                                dir="ltr">&lt;<a
                                                  href="mailto:jack.settelmaier@noaa.gov"
                                                  target="_blank"
                                                  moz-do-not-send="true">jack.settelmaier@noaa.gov</a>&gt;</span>
                                              wrote:<br>
                                              <blockquote
                                                class="gmail_quote"
                                                style="margin:0 0 0
                                                .8ex;border-left:1px
                                                #ccc
                                                solid;padding-left:1ex">
                                                <div dir="ltr">I may be
                                                  mistaken, but I'm
                                                  guessing MRMS does not
                                                  use COOP data in its
                                                  algorithms, as it's
                                                  more real-time (not
                                                  QCd too much) and
                                                  mostly just uses radar
                                                  data.  How far from
                                                  the nearest radar was
                                                  the site?
                                                  <div><br>
                                                  </div>
                                                  <div><a
                                                      href="https://training.weather.gov/wdtd/courses/MRMS/index.php"
                                                      target="_blank"
                                                      moz-do-not-send="true">https://training.weather.gov/w<wbr>dtd/courses/MRMS/index.php</a> 
                                                     </div>
                                                </div>
                                                <div class="gmail_extra">
                                                  <div>
                                                    <div
class="m_-251700852220942345m_7024192615613847659m_-4156293075502595429h5"><br>
                                                      <div
                                                        class="gmail_quote">On
                                                        Fri, Jun 22,
                                                        2018 at 8:10 AM,
                                                        Jeffrey Hovis -
                                                        NOAA Federal <span
                                                          dir="ltr">&lt;<a
href="mailto:jeffrey.hovis@noaa.gov" target="_blank"
                                                          moz-do-not-send="true">jeffrey.hovis@noaa.gov</a>&gt;</span>
                                                        wrote:<br>
                                                        <blockquote
                                                          class="gmail_quote"
style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
                                                          <div dir="ltr">All,
                                                          <div><br>
                                                          </div>
                                                          <div>I just
                                                          wanted to give
                                                          you an
                                                          update.  When
                                                          I came into
                                                          the office
                                                          this morning,
                                                          I checked the
                                                          MRMS 24 hour
                                                          QPE amount
                                                          against our
                                                          COOPs,  We had
                                                          a COOP that
                                                          was located in
                                                          the area of
                                                          heavy rain. 
                                                          MRMS indicated
                                                          that rainfall
                                                          amounts
                                                          between 3.54
                                                          and 5.11
                                                          inches near
                                                          the location
                                                          of our COOP. 
                                                          Our COOP
                                                          actually
                                                          reported 2.20
                                                          inches of
                                                          rain.</div>
                                                          <div>This is a
                                                          very big
                                                          difference.<br>
                                                          </div>
                                                          <div><br>
                                                          </div>
                                                          <div>There was
                                                          Flash Flooding
                                                          in the area. 
                                                          However if the
                                                          MRMS data had
                                                          verified, the
                                                          flooding would
                                                          likely have
                                                          been much
                                                          worse.</div>
                                                          <div><br>
                                                          </div>
                                                          <div>Jeff  </div>
                                                          <div
                                                          class="gmail_extra"> <br>
                                                          <br>
                                                          <div
                                                          class="gmail_quote">On
                                                          Thu, Jun 21,
                                                          2018 at 3:23
                                                          PM, Jeffrey S.
                                                          Hovis <span
                                                          dir="ltr">&lt;<a
href="mailto:jeffrey.hovis@noaa.gov" target="_blank"
                                                          moz-do-not-send="true">jeffrey.hovis@noaa.gov</a>&gt;</span>
                                                          wrote:<br>
                                                          <blockquote
                                                          class="gmail_quote"
style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">All,<br>
                                                          <br>
                                                          We are
                                                          currently
                                                          experiencing
                                                          an area of
                                                          heavy rain
                                                          north of our
                                                          office.  The
                                                          MRMS QPE-Radar
                                                          Only product
                                                          is indicating
                                                          as much as
                                                          3.42 inches of
                                                          rain had
                                                          fallen over a
                                                          location in
                                                          the past 3
                                                          hours. 
                                                          However, none
                                                          of the
                                                          surrounding
                                                          radars are
                                                          indicating
                                                          that much rain
                                                          has fallen. 
                                                          In fact, the
                                                          highest 3 hour
                                                          rainfall
                                                          amount based
                                                          on radar that
                                                          I have found
                                                          is closer to
                                                          2.5 inches.<br>
                                                          <br>
                                                          What could be
                                                          causing this
                                                          difference
                                                          between these
                                                          two products?<br>
                                                          <span
class="m_-251700852220942345m_7024192615613847659m_-4156293075502595429m_-3672412057387341659m_-8035783454247603723m_7772369388418594077HOEnZb"><font
color="#888888"><br>
                                                          Jeffrey Hovis 
                                                          <br>
                                                          </font></span></blockquote>
                                                          </div>
                                                          <br>
                                                          </div>
                                                          </div>
                                                        </blockquote>
                                                      </div>
                                                      <br>
                                                      <br clear="all">
                                                      <div><br>
                                                      </div>
                                                    </div>
                                                  </div>
                                                  <span
class="m_-251700852220942345m_7024192615613847659m_-4156293075502595429HOEnZb"><font
                                                      color="#888888">--
                                                      <br>
                                                      <div
class="m_-251700852220942345m_7024192615613847659m_-4156293075502595429m_-3672412057387341659gmail_signature"
data-smartmail="gmail_signature">
                                                        <div dir="ltr">
                                                          <div
                                                          style="font-size:small">Jack
                                                          Settelmaier</div>
                                                          <div
                                                          style="font-size:small">Digital
                                                          Techniques
                                                          Meteorologist</div>
                                                          <div
                                                          style="font-size:small">NOAA/NWS,
                                                          Southern
                                                          Region HQ</div>
                                                          <div
                                                          style="font-size:small">Fort
                                                          Worth, TX </div>
                                                          <div
                                                          style="font-size:small">Work:
                                                          682 703 3685</div>
                                                        </div>
                                                      </div>
                                                    </font></span></div>
                                              </blockquote>
                                            </div>
                                            <br>
                                          </div>
                                        </div>
                                      </div>
                                    </div>
                                  </blockquote>
                                </div>
                                <br>
                                <br clear="all">
                                <div><br>
                                </div>
                              </div>
                            </div>
                          </div>
                        </div>
                        <span class=""><span
                            class="m_-251700852220942345HOEnZb"><font
                              color="#888888">-- <br>
                              <div
                                class="m_-251700852220942345m_7024192615613847659gmail_signature"
                                data-smartmail="gmail_signature">
                                <div dir="ltr">
                                  <div>
                                    <div dir="ltr">
                                      <div dir="ltr">
                                        <div dir="ltr">
                                          <div dir="ltr">
                                            <div dir="ltr">
                                              <div dir="ltr">
                                                <div dir="ltr">
                                                  <div
                                                    style="margin-left:40px"><font
face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif">Tim Humphrey</font></div>
                                                  <div
                                                    style="margin-left:40px"><font
face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><br>
                                                      Meteorologist</font></div>
                                                  <div
                                                    style="margin-left:40px"><font
face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif">National Weather Service</font></div>
                                                  <div
                                                    style="margin-left:40px"><font
face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif">Lake Charles, Louisiana</font></div>
                                                  <div
                                                    style="margin-left:40px"><font
face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif">337.477.5285<br>
                                                    </font></div>
                                                  <div
                                                    style="margin-left:40px"><br>
                                                  </div>
                                                  <div
                                                    style="margin-left:40px">Follow
                                                    us on <a
                                                      href="http://www.facebook.com/NWSLakeCharles"
                                                      target="_blank"
                                                      moz-do-not-send="true">Facebook</a>,
                                                    <a
                                                      href="http://www.twitter.com/NWSLakeCharles"
                                                      target="_blank"
                                                      moz-do-not-send="true">Twitter</a>
                                                    and <a
                                                      href="http://www.youtube.com/user/NWSLakeCharles"
                                                      target="_blank"
                                                      moz-do-not-send="true">Youtube</a></div>
                                                  <div
                                                    style="margin-left:40px"><br>
                                                  </div>
                                                </div>
                                              </div>
                                            </div>
                                          </div>
                                        </div>
                                      </div>
                                    </div>
                                  </div>
                                </div>
                              </div>
                            </font></span></span></div>
                    </blockquote>
                  </div>
                  <br>
                  <br clear="all">
                  <span class=""><br>
                    -- <br>
                    <div class="m_-251700852220942345gmail_signature"
                      data-smartmail="gmail_signature">
                      <div dir="ltr">
                        <div>
                          <div dir="ltr">
                            <div>
                              <div dir="ltr">
                                <div>
                                  <div dir="ltr">
                                    <div>
                                      <div dir="ltr">
                                        <div>
                                          <div dir="ltr">
                                            <div>
                                              <div dir="ltr">
                                                <div>
                                                  <div>
                                                    <div><b>Joseph J.
                                                        Moore</b><br>
                                                    </div>
                                                    Meteorologist | WFO
                                                    Duluth Social Media
                                                    &amp; IDSS Program
                                                    Leader | Open Source
                                                    GIS Evangelist <br>
                                                  </div>
                                                  <div>NOAA/National
                                                    Weather Service
                                                    Duluth, MN<br>
                                                  </div>
                                                </div>
                                              </div>
                                            </div>
                                          </div>
                                        </div>
                                      </div>
                                    </div>
                                  </div>
                                </div>
                              </div>
                            </div>
                          </div>
                        </div>
                      </div>
                    </div>
                  </span></div>
              </blockquote>
            </div>
            <br>
          </div>
        </div>
      </blockquote>
      <br>
      <pre class="moz-signature" cols="72">-- 
Michael A. Magsig - KD5YKJ
Meteorologist Instructor
Warning Decision Training Division
120 David L. Boren Blvd, Suite 2640, Norman, Oklahoma, 73072
Email: <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:Michael.A.Magsig@noaa.gov" moz-do-not-send="true">Michael.A.Magsig@noaa.gov</a>  Phone:(405)-325-2995  Fax:(405)-325-3203 </pre>
      <!--'"--><br>
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      <br>
      <pre wrap="">_______________________________________________
Ncep.list.idp.mrms.users mailing list
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:Ncep.list.idp.mrms.users@lstsrv.ncep.noaa.gov">Ncep.list.idp.mrms.users@lstsrv.ncep.noaa.gov</a>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.lstsrv.ncep.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/ncep.list.idp.mrms.users">https://www.lstsrv.ncep.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/ncep.list.idp.mrms.users</a>
</pre>
    </blockquote>
    <br>
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