<div dir="ltr"><div>Jeffery, I'll definitely agree with you that for where the most precip fell, MRMS was on the hot side (mrms-radar-only.PNG). The gauge-adjusted product doesn't seem to have really changed much of that (mrms-gauge-adj.PNG), though looking at the diagnostic provided by MRMS (the <i>Gauge Influence Index</i>, viewable on MRMS Op Product Viewer site) there doesn't appear to be <i>any </i>gauge correction going on anywhere right now or in the past 24 hours for any precip accumulation timeframe. (<b>I think the issue of no gauge adjustment happening is an actual problem with MRMS, so I'm looping the MRMS Users email list on this thread</b>.)<br></div><div><br></div><div>Compared to the RLX radar (STA, STA-hires, and STP images), the MRMS data certainly has a broader area of 3"+ and a fairly broad area of 4"+ compared to the legacy and dual-pol estimates. So even compared to other precip estimates, MRMS seems on the high side. Why the MRMS estimates are running too hot? As I said in my first message, it is probably a case of mis-classification of the type of rainfall occurring - maybe using the tropical algorithm when it should be using a standard convection one. Looking through the Reflectivity Cube (see the Op Product Viewer), during the most intense parts of the rain yesterday MRMS certainly seems to have ingested your radar and surrounding radars correctly with no gross errors obvious to me. The MRMS Ops folks on the Users listserv may be able to diagnose what's going on in this case better than I can.</div><div><br></div><div>We can't expect MRMS to be perfect, just like we know the radar-based legacy and dual-pol estimates are going to have errors for various reasons. For what it's worth, on our recent heavy rainfall event last weekend MRMS absolutely <i>nailed </i>the precip estimation with no strong high or low bias - it got the maximum amounts just about as spot-on as you can expect... and that was with our primary radar down! (MPX's radar provided sufficient radar data to help fill in the gap to our radar being down, but at a higher elevation than DLH would have been scanning if it were up.) <br></div><div><br></div><div>If there is a noticeable problem with MRMS data, this should be reported to the MRMS/NCEP folks so they can investigate (I think <i><a href="mailto:ncep.list.idp.mrms.users@noaa.gov">ncep.list.idp.mrms.users@noaa.gov</a></i> is the best choice but someone else chime in there's a better option!)</div><div><br></div><div>-Joe<br></div><div><br></div><div>MRMS Op Product Viewer: <a href="https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_viewer.php" target="_blank">https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs<wbr>/product_viewer.php</a></div><div>WRH Wx and Hazard Viewer: <a href="https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/" target="_blank">https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/</a></div><div><br></div><div><br></div></div><div class="gmail_extra"><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Fri, Jun 22, 2018 at 9:19 AM, Timothy Humphrey - NOAA Federal <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:timothy.humphrey@noaa.gov" target="_blank">timothy.humphrey@noaa.gov</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr">Over the past several days here at the Lake Charles office, we also noticed that the MRMS-QPE Radar only was running quite hot compared to our individual radars' estimates and surface observations. Comparing this morning's 12Z 72 hour MRMS estimates to a variety of observation sites including ASOS/ALERT/COOP confirmed this with a few comparisons listed below:<div><br></div><div>JYDT2: 7.91" MRMS: 10.33"</div><div>JYET2: 7.76" MRMS: 13.18"<br><div>JYGT2: 6.38" MRMS: 7.48"</div><div>KBPT: 5.79" MRMS: 8.11"</div><div>ORNT2: 4.91" MRMS: 6.06"</div><div><br></div><div>Based on our experience, the QPE-Radar Only seemed that it was running much hotter compared to previous events and we were also curious what might have been causing such a large difference. Our concern is that these large differences could result in derived FLASH products being less reliable for warning decision making.<br></div></div></div><div class="gmail_extra"><div><div class="h5"><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Fri, Jun 22, 2018 at 8:54 AM, Jeffrey Hovis - NOAA Federal <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:jeffrey.hovis@noaa.gov" target="_blank">jeffrey.hovis@noaa.gov</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr">Jack,<div><br></div><div>It was approximately 10 miles from the area of heaviest rainfall to the radar site (RLX) . As you indicated, COOPS are not included in the MRMS data.</div><div><br></div><div>I just wanted to see what might have caused the large difference in rainfall amounts. </div><div><br></div><div>We issued a Flash Flood Warning based on the MRMS data. It was a good warning as we did have lots of flash flooding reports. </div><div><br></div><div>Jeff</div><div><div class="m_7024192615613847659h5"><div><br></div><div class="gmail_extra"><div class="gmail_quote">On Fri, Jun 22, 2018 at 9:42 AM, Jack Settelmaier - NOAA Federal <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:jack.settelmaier@noaa.gov" target="_blank">jack.settelmaier@noaa.gov</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr">I may be mistaken, but I'm guessing MRMS does not use COOP data in its algorithms, as it's more real-time (not QCd too much) and mostly just uses radar data. How far from the nearest radar was the site?<div><br></div><div><a href="https://training.weather.gov/wdtd/courses/MRMS/index.php" target="_blank">https://training.weather.gov/w<wbr>dtd/courses/MRMS/index.php</a> </div></div><div class="gmail_extra"><div><div class="m_7024192615613847659m_-4156293075502595429h5"><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Fri, Jun 22, 2018 at 8:10 AM, Jeffrey Hovis - NOAA Federal <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:jeffrey.hovis@noaa.gov" target="_blank">jeffrey.hovis@noaa.gov</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr">All,<div><br></div><div>I just wanted to give you an update. When I came into the office this morning, I checked the MRMS 24 hour QPE amount against our COOPs, We had a COOP that was located in the area of heavy rain. MRMS indicated that rainfall amounts between 3.54 and 5.11 inches near the location of our COOP. Our COOP actually reported 2.20 inches of rain.</div><div>This is a very big difference.<br></div><div><br></div><div>There was Flash Flooding in the area. However if the MRMS data had verified, the flooding would likely have been much worse.</div><div><br></div><div>Jeff </div><div class="gmail_extra"> <br>
<br><div class="gmail_quote">On Thu, Jun 21, 2018 at 3:23 PM, Jeffrey S. Hovis <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:jeffrey.hovis@noaa.gov" target="_blank">jeffrey.hovis@noaa.gov</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">All,<br>
<br>
We are currently experiencing an area of heavy rain north of our office. The MRMS QPE-Radar Only product is indicating as much as 3.42 inches of rain had fallen over a location in the past 3 hours. However, none of the surrounding radars are indicating that much rain has fallen. In fact, the highest 3 hour rainfall amount based on radar that I have found is closer to 2.5 inches.<br>
<br>
What could be causing this difference between these two products?<br>
<span class="m_7024192615613847659m_-4156293075502595429m_-3672412057387341659m_-8035783454247603723m_7772369388418594077HOEnZb"><font color="#888888"><br>
Jeffrey Hovis <br>
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</blockquote></div><br><br clear="all"><div><br></div></div></div><span class="m_7024192615613847659m_-4156293075502595429HOEnZb"><font color="#888888">-- <br><div class="m_7024192615613847659m_-4156293075502595429m_-3672412057387341659gmail_signature" data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div style="font-size:small">Jack Settelmaier</div><div style="font-size:small">Digital Techniques Meteorologist</div><div style="font-size:small">NOAA/NWS, Southern Region HQ</div><div style="font-size:small">Fort Worth, TX </div><div style="font-size:small">Work: 682 703 3685</div></div></div>
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</blockquote></div><br><br clear="all"><div><br></div></div></div><span class="HOEnZb"><font color="#888888">-- <br><div class="m_7024192615613847659gmail_signature" data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div style="margin-left:40px"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif">Tim Humphrey</font></div><div style="margin-left:40px"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><br>Meteorologist</font></div><div style="margin-left:40px"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif">National Weather Service</font></div><div style="margin-left:40px"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif">Lake Charles, Louisiana</font></div><div style="margin-left:40px"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif">337.477.5285<br></font></div><div style="margin-left:40px"><br></div><div style="margin-left:40px">Follow us on <a href="http://www.facebook.com/NWSLakeCharles" target="_blank">Facebook</a>, <a href="http://www.twitter.com/NWSLakeCharles" target="_blank">Twitter</a> and <a href="http://www.youtube.com/user/NWSLakeCharles" target="_blank">Youtube</a></div><div style="margin-left:40px"><br></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>
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</blockquote></div><br><br clear="all"><br>-- <br><div class="gmail_signature" data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div><div><b>Joseph J. Moore</b><br></div>Meteorologist | WFO Duluth Social Media & IDSS Program Leader | Open Source GIS Evangelist <br></div><div>NOAA/National Weather Service Duluth, MN<br></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>
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