[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

[Wei Shi - NOAA Federal]

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons
website:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml

*HIGHLIGHTS:*



*African Monsoons:*



Below-average rainfall was observed over many places in the Greater Horn of
Africa. Suppressed rainfall also prevailed across much of Nigeria,
Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon and Congo.



Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over portions of DRC, eastern CAR, South Sudan, southwestern Ethiopia, and
parts of Uganda. In contrast, there is an increased chance for
below-average rainfall over southeastern Ethiopia, southern Somalia and
portions of Kenya.





*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*



For the past 90 days, below normal rainfall deficits  dominated deep
southern coastal peninsular India, Korea, Japan, Thailand, Malaysia, the
Philippines, parts of New Guinea island of Indonesia and Papua New Guinea,
and much of Australia, particularly north western regions. Elsewhere, the
rainfall amounts received were at normal to slightly above normal levels,
particularly in southeastern China, Kashmir India, Nepal, parts of the
Middle East, and Indonesia. For the past 30 days near normal rainfall fell
across  the Middle East and across  entire Australia coast and vicinity,.
Elsewhere the rainfall amounts received were mixed. Below normal occurred
over Thailand, Malaysia, and Papua New Guinea.



In this past week, the severe Fani tropical storm in the Bay of Bengal
brought devastating rainfall and destruction to the east coast of India.
Rainfall is slowly moving from away from Australia and southern hemisphere
into the northern hemisphere.  For the next two weeks, the NCEP GFS model
forecasts below normal rainfall over the entire region.





*South American Monsoons:*



Long-term rainfall deficits are present over the western Brazilian Plateau.



During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over
portions of northern and the extreme southern Brazil, northern Uruguay, as
well as much of Colombia and Venezuela.  Above-average precipitation was
observed over portions of central and southern Brazil, Paraguay and
southern Chile.



For Days 1-7 (06 - 12 May 2019), below-average precipitation is predicted
over much of northern Brazil, northern Peru and southern Chile.
Above-average precipitation is predicted for the extreme southern Brazil
and Paraguay, as well as portions of central Bolivia, central Colombia and
southern Venezuela.





*For questions or comments, please contact:


Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov  (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)


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Wei Shi, Ph.D
Meteorologist
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
USA
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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