[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

[Wei Shi - NOAA Federal]

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons
website:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml

*HIGHLIGHTS:*



*African Monsoons:*



Rainfall was below-average over many places in Southern Africa.



Weekly rainfall totals exceeded 100mm over western Tanzania, northeastern
Zambia, and many parts of Madagascar.



Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over central Angola, southern DRC, northern Zambia, northern Malawi,
southern Tanzania, northern Mozambique, and northwestern Madagascar,
eastern South Africa. There is an increased chance for below-average
rainfall over southeastern Angola, northeastern Namibia, southern Zambia,
Botswana, Zimbabwe, southern Malawi, northern South Africa, southern
Mozambique, and southern Madagascar.





*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*



For the past 90 days, below normal rainfall deficits dominated deep
southern India, Japan and almost all of Australia. Elsewhere, the rainfall
amounts received were at normal to slightly above normal levels,
particularly in southeastern China, and Indonesia. For the past 30 days,
seasonal rainfall fell over large parts of the Middle East including Iran,
Afghanistan, Pakistan and far northern India. Australia continued to
experience below normal rainfall. Elsewhere, rainfall is mixed.



In this past week, rainfall amounts are generally below normal across much
of the region except near Kashmir in northern India. This is not the rainy
season for the rest of India and monsoon has moved over to southeast Asia
centered over Indonesia impacting rainfall there and nearby northern
Australia. In the upcoming two weeks, the NCEP GFS model forecasts
generally below normal rainfall over northwestern Australia and above
normal rainfall over central Queensland.





*South American Monsoons:*



Long-term rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin and the
Brazilian Plateau.



During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over much
of Brazil, northern Argentina, Paraguay, Bolivia, western Ecuador and
western Colombia.  Above-average precipitation was observed only over small
regions in northern Brazil, north-central Argentina, northern Peru and
small portions of eastern Colombia.



For Days 1-7 (28 Jan – 03 Feb 2019), below-average precipitation is
predicted for much of Brazil, southeastern Paraguay and southern Chile.
Above-average precipitation is predicted for northern Argentina, northern
Chile, southern Ecuador, as well as much of Peru and Bolivia.





*For questions or comments, please contact:


Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov  (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
*---------------------------------------------------------------------------
   *
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Meteorologist
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
USA
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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