[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

[Wei Shi - NOAA Federal]

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons
website:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml

*HIGHLIGHTS:*



*African Monsoons:*



Rainfall was below-average over many places in the Gulf of Guinea
countries, including Gabon and Congo-Brazzaville.



Rainfall surpluses exceeded 100mm over parts of northern Nigeria.



Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for below-average rainfall
over Guinea-Conakry, Guinea-Bissau, Sierra Leone and southern Mali. In
contrast, there is an increased chance for above-average rainfall over
parts of Nigeria, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, CAR,
Congo-Brazzaville, eastern DRC, southern South Sudan, Uganda, Burundi,
Rwanda, northwestern Tanzania, western Kenya, southwestern and southeastern
Ethiopia, and parts Somalia.





*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*



For the past 90 days, below normal rainfall deficits remain over
southeastern China, over  large parts of Australia, New Guinea, parts of
Malaysia, as well as over Afghanistan. Elsewhere, in general, the rainfall
amounts received were at normal to slightly above normal levels. For the
past 30 days,  the prominent features are the severely  lower rainfall
amounts over coastal south eastern China, and over New Guinea maritime
island. Elsewhere, the pattern is mixed.



In this past week, the monsoon rainfall has gradually and almost totally
moved northwestward away from northern Australia, while the seasonal  southwest
summer monsoon over India is yet to start. Particularly, the rainfall is
much below normal over southeastern Asian countries, particularly over New
Guinea. Elsewhere the rainfall is spotty here and there. Bangladesh region
has begun to receive monsoon rainfall. In the upcoming two weeks, the NCEP
GFS model is predicting below normal rainfall over south east Asia, but
slightly above normal rainfall over peninsular southern India, and
northeastern India and Bangladesh.





*South American Monsoons:*



Long-term rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin, the
Brazilian Plateau and the extreme southern Brazil.



During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over
portions of northern and southern Brazil, southern Chile, northern Peru and
northern Colombia. Above-average precipitation was observed over portions
of northeastern Argentina, northern Peru and eastern Colombia.



For Days 1-7 (07 - 13 May 2018), below-average precipitation is predicted
over much of Brazil, southern and northeastern Peru and southern Chile.
Above-average precipitation is predicted for portions of northern Brazil,
northern Argentina, Ecuador and central Colombia.



*For questions or comments, please contact:


Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)

*---------------------------------------------------------------------------
   *
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Meteorologist
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
USA
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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