[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

[Wei Shi - NOAA Federal]

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons
website:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml

*HIGHLIGHTS:*



*African Monsoons:*



Tropical Cyclone Ava resulted in heavy rainfall over portions of
Madagascar. Above-average rainfall was also observed over portions of
Tanzania, while suppressed rainfall prevailed across many places in
Southern Africa.



Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over northern Angola, southern DRC, northern Zambia, northern Malawi,
Tanzania, and northern Madagascar. In contrast, there is an increased
chance for below-average rainfall over southern Angola, southern Zambia,
Namibia, Botswana, portions of South Africa, Zimbabwe, southern Malawi, and
central Mozambique.



*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*



For the past 90 days, below normal rainfall deficits remain in general over
much of central and southern India, South Korea, Papua New Guinea,
Cambodia, Malaysia, and parts of central and northern Australia. Elsewhere
else the monsoon rainfall is at normal to above normal levels. For the past
30 days,  rainfall amounts were generally at near or slightly above normal
levels across the region, except over  northern and northeastern Australia
where the rainfall deficits are severe. Slight deficits are also noted over
southeastern coast of India along the coastal state of Tamilnadu.



In this past week, the rainfall amounts were significantly below normal
over northeastern Australia and over New Guinea island. Eastern China got
good, above normal, rainfall amounts for the week. Not a drop of rain fell
across entire India. The 2017 winter northeast monsoon over southern India
(Oct-Dec 2017) rainfall, as of 27th of December since the first of October,
according to the India Meteorological Dept. (IMD), is at about  10% level
below long term mean. In the upcoming two weeks, the NCEP GFS model
continues to predict below normal rainfall over northeastern Australia,
where previous deficits remain.



*South American Monsoons:*



Long-term rainfall deficits are present over the Brazilian Plateau.



During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over much
of northern and central Brazil, northeastern Argentina and southern
Bolivia.  Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of central
and southern Brazil, northern Bolivia and northern Peru.



For Days 1-7 (08 - 14 Jan 2018), below-average precipitation is predicted
over portions of northern and southeastern Brazil, southern Bolivia,
northern Argentina and southern Chile. Above-average precipitation is
predicted for portions of southern Brazil, northern Bolivia, northern and
southern Peru, eastern Ecuador and northern Chile.





*For questions or comments, please contact:


Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
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   *
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Meteorologist
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
USA
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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