[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Mar 27 15:54:39 UTC 2017

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons:*

Weekly total rainfall surpluses exceeded 100mm over portions of Central

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over northwestern Angola, parts of southern Tanzania, Malawi, northern
Mozambique and northern Madagascar. In contrast, there is an increased
chance for below-average rainfall over central and eastern Angola, portions
of southern DRC, northeastern Namibia and northern Botswana, and western
and central Zambia.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*

For the past 90 days, slight to heavy rainfall deficits remain over parts
of  central and northeastern Australia, as well as over Papua New Guinea.
However, rainfall situation is generally better in western Australia,
particularly in the northern region. Elsewhere, the rainfall situation is
at or near normal levels. In the longer 180days term, severe deficits from
last year remain over southern India and over central and eastern
Australia. For the past 30 days  rainfall deficits are found over western
Australia and over Japan. Elsewhere, the rainfall amounts are at near or
above normal levels. These pre monsoon months are the hottest in India,
with little or no rain. In the last several years, even in the month of
March, temperatures in the high 90’s  and 100’s are very common across
India. It may be recalled that during last year, in 2016, in April and May,
many hundreds died of excessive heat in central India, before the onset of
SW summer monsoon.

In this past week,  the rainfall was slightly above normal over
southeastern China and southeastern Australia. Elsewhere it is a mixed
pattern. In the next couple of weeks the NCEP GFS model is predicting below
normal rainfall in the deep southern peninsular India, northern Australia,
and during the second week in southeastern China. Above normal rainfall is
predicted over northeastern Indian states and Burma.

*South American Monsoons:*

Long-term rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin and central

During the last 7 days (20 - 26 Mar 2017), below-average precipitation was
observed over much of central and southern Brazil, eastern Peru, Uruguay,
northeastern Argentina and southern Chile.  Above-average precipitation was
observed over portions of Colombia, Ecuador, Bolivia and a small portion of
northwestern Brazil.

For 27 Mar – 02 Apr 2017, below-average precipitation is predicted over
much of northern and southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay, Uruguay,
northeastern Argentina as well as northern and southern Chile.
Above-average precipitation is predicted for large portions of Argentina,
southern Bolivia, central-eastern Brazil, northern Peru and much of

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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