[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Jul 31 15:53:52 UTC 2017

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons:*

Another week of heavy rainfall sustained moisture surpluses over portions
of Guinea, Sierra Leone, southern Nigeria, eastern Sudan and western

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over much of Guinea, southern Mali, portions of Burkina Faso and Cote
d’Ivoire, parts of Nigeria, northern Cameroon, southern Chad, eastern Sudan
and western Ethiopia. In contrast, there is an increased chance for
below-average rainfall over eastern Ethiopia.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*

For the past 90 days, weak below normal rainfall deficits remain in general
over parts of central and peninsular India, east central China, Koreas,
Japan, Papua New Guinea, and large parts of Australia. During same period,
rainfall excess remain over central western and  northeastern India,
Bangladesh, Burma, and many southeast Asian countries bordering South China
Sea area including large parts of Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, the
Philippines and Indonesia. For the past 30 days, overall,  below normal
rainfall situation is noted over central and peninsular India, north
central China, parts of Japan and southeastern Australia. Elsewhere, the
rainfall is mostly above normal to normal.

In this past week, the observed rainfall amounts has been  deficient over
northern India and across central and eastern China, Koreas, Japan, and
over the larger Indonesian islands. The India Met. Dept, (IMD) is reporting
that the monsoon, so far since the beginning of June, is about 2% above the
long term mean across India as a whole. As of this writing, tropical storms
are active in the western and eastern tropical Pacific.  In the next couple
of weeks the NCEP GFS model is predicting below normal rainfall over much
of central and northern India especially in the second week particularly
during these peak period of monsoon rainfall, and near so slightly above
normal rainfall elsewhere in the region.

*North American Monsoons:*

Above-average rainfall has been observed over much of Arizona and
northwestern Mexico during the past week.

Rainfall accumulations over the past 30 days were above-average for much of
Arizona and northwestern Mexico and below-average for southern New Mexico
and along the west coast of Mexico.

NCEP/GFS Forecasts call for above-average precipitation for southern
Arizona and below-average rainfall for southern Mexico during 31 July – 06
August 2017.

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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