[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Feb 27 16:47:04 UTC 2017

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons:*

Many places in East and Southern Africa received above-average rainfall,
whereas suppressed rainfall prevailed over portions of the Central Africa

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for below-average rainfall
over portions of western Angola. In contrast, there is an increased chance
for above-average rainfall over southeastern Angola, Namibia, portions of
Zambia, central and southern Tanzania, Malawi, and portions of northern
Zimbabwe and northern Mozambique.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*

For the past 90 days, slight to heavy rainfall deficits remain over parts
of southeastern, eastern to northeastern parts of Australia, as well as
over Papua New Guinea. However, rainfall situation is generally better in
western Australia, particularly in the northern region. However, while 90
day rainfall deficits are noted in eastern India long term (180 days)
deficits still exist.

For the past 30 days the rainfall was  above normal over parts of southern
Afghanistan, northeastern Pakistan, and Jammu Kashmir region of India..
However, rainfall was significantly below normal over eastern China,
northeastern and eastern Australia, and central and eastern New Guinea
island. Very little to no  rainfall fell over southern India to possibly
offset 180 days deficits there.

In this past week,  the rainfall over much of the region was much below
normal (particularly northern Australia), except over the Philippines and
parts of Java and Borneo islands. There were no tropical systems or storms
anywhere during this past week. In the next couple of weeks the NCEP GFS
model is predicting above normal rainfall over the drought ridden southern
peninsular India, particularly more rainfall in the second week. In
northern Australia less rainfall is forecast during first week, but some
relief during second week.

*South American Monsoons:*

Long-term rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin and central

During the last 7 days (20-26 Feb 2017), below-average precipitation was
observed over much of southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and northern
Argentina.  Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of
Colombia, Ecuador, Bolivia and northern Brazil.

For 27 Feb – 05 Mar 2017, below-average precipitation is predicted over
northern and central Brazil, northern Bolivia and western Colombia.
Above-average precipitation is predicted for portions of southern Brazil,
northern Peru, southern Bolivia and southern Chile.

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)

Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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