[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Feb 6 16:50:32 UTC 2017

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons:*

Weekly total rainfall exceeded 100mm over local areas in eastern Namibia,
central Zimbabwe, eastern Zambia, northern Malawi, southern Tanzania, and
local areas in northern Mozambique.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over portions of southern Angola, Namibia, northern Botswana, southwestern
Zambia, southeastern DRC, central and eastern Zambia, Malawi, parts of
southern Tanzania, and northern Mozambique. In contrast, there is an
increased chance for below-average rainfall over central and southern
Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, southern Kenya, much of Tanzania, southern
Zimbabwe, eastern Botswana, northern South Africa, and southern Mozambique.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*

For the past 90 days, severe rainfall deficits remain over parts of central
eastern and eastern coastal India, especially along eastern coastal
Tamilnadu state, Papua New Guinea, and over large parts of central,
northern and eastern Australia. Elsewhere, the rainfall is at above normal
levels over much of the region, especially eastern China, the Philippines
and large parts of Indonesia. For the past 30 days the rainfall was  above
normal over parts of eastern Pakistan, Jammu Kashmir region of  India, the
Philippines, interior western Australia. Rainfall was below normal over
eastern China, eastern Australia, and Papua New Guinea.

In this past week,  the rainfall pattern was generally mixed over much of
the overall monsoon region, and was particularly deficient over eastern
Australia. In the next couple of weeks the NCEP GFS model is predicting
slightly above normal above normal rainfall for parts of western maritime
Indonesia and western Australia, and below normal rainfall for southeastern
China, Papua New Guinea and parts of central and eastern Australia.

*South American Monsoons:*

Long-term rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin and central

During the last 7 days (30 Jan - 05 Feb 2017), below-average precipitation
was observed over much of central Brazil, Bolivia and eastern Peru.
Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of northern Brazil
and central Argentina.

For 06-12 Feb 2017, below-average precipitation is predicted over northern,
central-west and southern Brazil, Uruguay, northern and southern Chile.
Above-average precipitation is predicted for portions of southern Ecuador,
northern Peru, northern Argentina and eastern Brazil.

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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