[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Apr 3 15:19:16 UTC 2017

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons:*

Moderate to locally heavy rainfall resulted in moisture surpluses over
northern Mozambique and much of Madagascar. In contrast, suppressed
rainfall prevailed over many places in the Equatorial and Southern Africa

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over portions of Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana, northern Mozambique, and portions
of South Africa. In contrast, there is an increased chance for
below-average rainfall over portions of Uganda, western Kenya, much of
Tanzania, eastern and southern DRC, and portions of Angola.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*

For the past 90 days, slight to heavy rainfall deficits remain over parts
of  central and northeastern Australia, as well as over Papua New Guinea.
However, rainfall situation is generally better in western Australia,
particularly in the northern region. Elsewhere, the rainfall situation is
at or near normal levels.  In the longer 180days term, severe deficits from
last year remain over southern India and over central and eastern
Australia. Unfortunately, for this drought ridden Southern India, very
early NCEP CFS model’s long lead forecasts of  2017 summer monsoon(JJAS)
rainfall do not appear very promising either. For the past 30 days
rainfall deficits are found over western Australia, Japan and Papa New
Guinea. Elsewhere, the rainfall amounts are at near or above normal levels,
particularly it is above normal over eastern coastal Australia,
northeastern India, Bangladesh, and parts of southeastern China.

In this past week,, generally positive rainfall anomalies are noted across
the monsoon region. But, little or no rain fell over India, where
pre-monsoon temperatures are getting very hot. In the next couple of weeks
the NCEP GFS model is predicting generally below  to near normal  rainfall
over much of the monsoon region, except over parts of southeastern China
and Australia.

*South American Monsoons:*

Long-term rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin and central

During the last 7 days (27 Mar – 02 Apr 2017), below-average precipitation
was observed over much of northern and the extreme southern Brazil, Uruguay
and eastern Argentina.  Above-average precipitation was observed over
Colombia, Ecuador, western Argentina and portions of central Brazil.

For 03 - 09 Apr 2017, below-average precipitation is predicted over much of
northern South America.  Above-average precipitation is predicted for
portions of Paraguay, northeastern and the extreme southern Brazil, as well
as southern Argentina.

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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