[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Aug 29 15:57:16 UTC 2016

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons:*

Rainfall surpluses exceeded 100mm over southeastern Nigeria, whereas
suppressed rainfall prevailed over Senegal, parts of Guinea, Liberia,
northern Nigeria, CAR, South Sudan and northeastern Ethiopia.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over much of Guinea, Sierra Leone, Cote d’Ivoire, Liberia, Ghana, and
western Ethiopia. In contrast, there is an increased chance for
below-average rainfall over portions of eastern Sudan, eastern South Sudan,
and northern Uganda.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*

For the past 90 days rainfall amounts are showing a mixed pattern over the
monsoon region with slightly deficient conditions over parts of central
western India, particularly the state of Gujarat,  and central eastern
India, southern peninsular India, central China, Koreas, Japan, and parts
of Papua New Guinea, but above normal elsewhere particularly the Indonesian
archipelago and the Philippines. For the past 30 days the rainfall
situation was also a mixed pattern but with highly deficient rainfall
conditions over  southern central and southern peninsular India, far
northern and eastern China, central and eastern China, Thailand, Malaysia,
Koreas, and Japan. Elsewhere, rainfall was at generally at near normal or
above normal levels.

In this past week, monsoon rainfall was generally deficient across much of
the region. Cat 1 Typhoon Lionrock is active, and is forecast to move
northwest to move towards northern Japan and further west.  According to
the India Met. Dept. (IMD), as of today, for the 2016 monsoon season so
far, since the 1st of June, the monsoon rainfall hovers near normal with
about -3 % across the country  In the next couple of weeks the NCEP GFS is
predicting generally below normal rainfall over much of the region, except
for above normal rainfall over far northeastern China and Koreas in the
first week.

*North American Monsoons:*

Above-average rainfall has been observed over southwestern U.S. during the
past week.

Rainfall accumulations over the past 30 days were near-average for
southwestern U.S. and above-average over northern Mexico.

NCEP/GFS Forecasts call for above-average (below-average) precipitation for
northwestern Mexico (Arizona) during 29 August – 04 September, 2016.

*South American Monsoons:*

The annual summary for the 2015-2016 South American Monsoon wet season is
available on the CPC website at:


*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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