[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Jul 27 17:04:30 UTC 2015

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons (AFMS.ppt):*

Portions of the Sahel countries received above-average rainfall, whereas
suppressed rainfall continued to prevail over much of Nigeria and eastern

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over southern Senegal, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Sierra Leone, southern and
central Mali, Burkina Faso, portions of northern Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana,
southwestern Niger, western Ethiopia and eastern South Sudan Republic. In
contrast, there is an increased chance for below-average rainfall over
southern Cameroon, Gabon, Equatorial Africa, Congo, western DRC, and
eastern Ethiopia.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons (AAMS.ppt):*

For the past 90 days rainfall pattern has been mixed, with above normal
rainfall over eastern India/Burma and eastern parts of China and below
normal elsewhere. For the past 30 days, rainfall was considerably below
normal everywhere except along northern and northeastern India, parts of
Burma and to a small extent along east coast of China. A clear disparity
with above normal rainfall in the north and below normal rainfall pattern
in the south India has emerged so far. According to the India Met. Dept.
(IMD), the SW summer monsoon rainfall over India as whole since the 1st of
June, as of today, is now 4 % below normal.

In this past week the southwest monsoon rainfall was somewhat above normal
along pasts of central western India, Burma and eastern China.  Elsewhere
it was below normal. In the next couple of weeks, the NCEP GFS model is
predicting above normal rainfall over  parts of central and northern India.
Elsewhere below normal rainfall is predicted.

*North American Monsoons (NAMS.ppt):*

Slightly below-average rainfall has been observed over southwest US while
most of Mexico (except along the gulf coast) experienced
wetter-than-average condition during the past week.

Rainfall accumulations over the past 30 days were above-average across the
northwestern Mexico and southwestern US, and below-average over southern
and eastern Mexico.

NCEP/GFS Forecasts call for below-average rainfall over southern Mexico and
near-average across SW US/NW Mexico during the next two weeks.

*South American Monsoons (SAMS.ppt):*

The South American Monsoon System 2014-2015 wet season has ended. The next
weekly update will be prepared in September 2015. The summary of the
2014-2015 wet season can be found on the following webpage:


*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Vernon.Kousky at noaa.gov (for South American monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for North American monsoon update and for general issues
about the CPC Global Monsoons products)
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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