[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Tue Jan 20 16:42:06 UTC 2015

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems (SAMS.ppt, AFMS.ppt and AAMS.ppt) have been
updated on the CPC Global Monsoons website:


*African Monsoons (AFMS.ppt):*

Weekly total rainfall exceeded 120mm over southern Malawi and portions of

Suppressed rainfall continued to prevail over much DRC, the Lake Victoria
region, and portions of the Southern Africa countries.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over portions of Angola, southern DRC, northern Zambia and western
Tanzania. In contrast, there is an increased chance for below-average
rainfall over southern Zambia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, southern Malawi, central
and southern Mozambique, and portions of South Africa.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons (AAMS.ppt):*

For the past 90 days, the rainfall over south and southeast Asia has been a
mixed bag. Rainfall over southeastern India, northeast India, Vietnam, New
Guinea, northeastern Australia particularly Queensland have been below
normal, whereas other parts of  the region have been at or above normal
levels particularly northwest Australia. For the past 30 days, rainfall
over the region as a whole in general has been at or above normal levels,
except over eastern China, Papa New Guinea, and Queensland. Indonesia,
southern Philippines and particularly Northwestern Australia had excess
rainfall in past 30 days.

In this past week, the island of Borneo and parts of northern Australia
received copious rainfall. In the next weeks, the NCEP GFS model is
predicting below normal rainfall over southern India, northern Philippines,
Cambodia, and above normal rainfall to parts of Indonesian islands and
northern Australia. Queensland of Australia  is forecast  to receive less
than normal rainfall in the next two weeks.

*South American Monsoons (SAMS.ppt):*

Rainfall deficits are predicted to increase over central and southeastern
Brazil during the next two weeks.

During the last 7 days (12-18 January 2015), below-average precipitation
was observed over the southern Amazon Basin, and central, northeastern and
southeastern Brazil.  Above-average precipitation was observed over
portions of Bolivia, Uruguay, and northern and eastern Argentina.

For 19-25 January 2015, below-average precipitation is indicated for the
eastern Amazon Basin, and central, southeastern and extreme southern
Brazil. Above-average precipitation is predicted for the western Amazon
Basin, southern Colombia, most of Peru, and portions of northern Argentina.

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Vernon.Kousky at noaa.gov (for South American monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for North American monsoon update and for general issues
about the CPC Global Monsoons products)

Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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