[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Jan 5 16:23:50 UTC 2015

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems (SAMS.ppt, AFMS.ppt and AAMS.ppt) have been
updated on the CPC Global Monsoons website:


*African Monsoons (AFMS.ppt):*

Weekly total rainfall exceeded 150mm across northern Zimbabwe, and portions
of western Mozambique and southeastern Zambia.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for below-average rainfall
over Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Congo-Brazzaville, northern DRC, southern
Angola, northern Namibia, and portions of western Zambia and northern
Botswana. In contrast, there is an increased chance for above-average
rainfall over portions of eastern Zambia, much of Malawi, southern
Tanzania, Mozambique and Madagascar.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons (AAMS.ppt):*

For the past 90 days, the rainfall over several regions of south Asia and
southeast Asia have been below normal, except over Malaysia, parts of
Indonesia, southern Philippines and Japan. Northern Australia, particularly
over northern Queensland has been abnormally dry. For the past 30 days,
rainfall over the region as a whole in general has been either at or above
normal levels, except over eastern China, Papa New Guinea, Queensland.

In this past week, above normal rainfall fell over central India, Nepal,
southern Philippines and northern Australia. Elsewhere the rainfall is at
near or below normal levels. The NCEP GFS model is predicting heavy
rainfall in the upcoming week over central parts of northern and western
territory regions in Australia. In the second week, some excess rainfall is
forecast over the island regions Malaysia and Borneo.

*South American Monsoons (SAMS.ppt):*

Rainfall deficits are predicted to increase over the southern Amazon Basin,
and central and southeastern Brazil.

During the last 7 days (29 December 2014-4 January 2015), below-average
precipitation was observed over the central and eastern Amazon Basin, and
central and southeastern Brazil.  Above-average precipitation was observed
over portions of southern Brazil, southern Paraguay and northeastern

For 5-11 January 2015, below-average precipitation is indicated for most of
Brazil. Above-average precipitation is predicted for extreme southern
Brazil, northeastern Argentina and Uruguay.

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Vernon.Kousky at noaa.gov (for South American monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for North American monsoon update and for general issues
about the CPC Global Monsoons products)

Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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