[Ncep.hmon] Fwd: [610_all] 610 Atmospheres Monthly Seminar, Dr. Robert Rogers, NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division, THURSDAY, February 15, 2018

[Avichal Mehra - NOAA Federal]

All:

Please let me know by COB today if you are interested and if you would like
to attend. Please note that visitor's entry to NASA GSFC is limited to US
Citizens.

Thanks, Avichal.



*From: *"Nalborczyk, Lisa Ann. (GSFC-612.0)[SCIENCE SYSTEMS AND
APPLICATIONS INC]" <lisa.a.nalborczyk at nasa.gov>
*Date: *Thursday, February 1, 2018 at 3:02 PM
*To: *"610_all at nccs.nasa.gov" <610_all at nccs.nasa.gov>, "
690_all at nccs.nasa.gov" <690_all at nccs.nasa.gov>
*Subject: *[610_all] 610 Atmospheres Monthly Seminar, Dr. Robert Rogers,
NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division, THURSDAY, February 15, 2018



*610 ATMOSPHERES SEMINAR*





*SPEAKER:                  **Dr. Robert Rogers*

*NOAA/AOML’s Hurricane Research Division (HRD) in Miami, FL*



*HOST:**                        If you would like to meet with Dr. Rogers,
please contact Gerald Heymsfield: (**gerald.m.heymsfield at nasa.gov*
<Luke.D.Oman at nasa.gov>*)*



*TIME:                         **3:30 P.M.*



*DATE:                         **Thursday, February 15, 2018*



*PLACE:                       **Building 33, Room H114*

*___________________________________________________________________________*

*The relationship between tropical cyclone structure and intensification in
moderate vertical shear*



It has long been known that tropical cyclone (TC) structure and intensity
change are highly sensitive to environmental vertical wind shear.  A low
value of vertical wind shear (i.e., < 5 m s-1 between 850 and 200 hPa) is
considered a favorable environment for intensification, while high vertical
wind shear (>10 m s-1) is generally detrimental to intensification.
However, there is a range of moderate shear values, between 5-10 m s-1,
where the response of the TC is uncertain, and it is in this range of shear
values where significant forecast uncertainty lies.  Whether or not a TC
intensifies in this shear environment is dependent on characteristics of
the environment as well as the TC vortex.

One aspect of the vortex structure that has received considerable attention
recently is precipitation structure, and how that structure varies
azimuthally in a shear-relative framework.  Recent aircraft, satellite, and
modeling-based studies have identified different modes of precipitation
(e.g., deep vs. shallow convection, stratiform precipitation) and linked
these modes to the potential for TC intensification.  In general,
intensification has been associated with a greater azimuthal coverage of
precipitation, with the distribution of precipitation, including deep
convection, on the upshear side of a TC being identified as a critical
determinant of TC intensification.  Relationships between the azimuthal
distribution of precipitation and TC intensification have invoked
efficiency concepts; namely, a greater azimuthal symmetry of precipitation
provides a larger projection of diabatic heating onto wavenumber-0, a
configuration more efficient for vortex spin-up.

This study will present results from recent and ongoing case studies and
composite analyses of NOAA airborne Doppler radar and dropsonde data to
identify shear-relative vortex structures and how they relate to TC
intensification.  Attention will be focused on the upshear precipitation
distribution and structure, with processes that encourage (or discourage)
an enhancement of upshear precipitation being a primary emphasis.  Such
processes include moistening in the midlevels, surface enthalpy fluxes,
variations in the structure of precipitation upshear, and a reduction in
vortex tilt.  These results suggest a complex interplay between
precipitation and vortex structure and TC intensification, with processes
that provide a more favorable local environment for the maintenance of
convection upshear being an important player.



*SHORT BIO:*

Dr. Rogers is an employee of NOAA/AOML’s Hurricane Research Division (HRD)
in Miami, FL.  His main areas of research involve studying the role of
convective- and vortex-scale processes in tropical cyclone structure and
intensity change, using a combination of aircraft observations and
numerical models.  He is an active participant in HRD's annual hurricane
field campaign, having served as Director of the field campaign in 2005,
2010, 2015, and 2016.





Lisa A. Nalborczyk
GPM Mission Science Support Specialist

612 Lab Admin/Property Custodian

Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Lab
Science Systems & Applications, Inc.
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Mail Code 612
Building 33, Room C411
Greenbelt, MD  20771
lisa.a.nalborczyk at nasa.gov
(301) 614-5087
FAX:  (301) 286-1626
-- 




-- 
    Dr. Avichal Mehra                               Avichal.Mehra at noaa.gov
    Lead Physical Scientist                      NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC
    5830 University Research Court        Room 2104
    College Park                                      Ph.   301-683-3746
    MD 20740                                          Fax: 301-683-3703
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