[Ncep.hmon] Thoughts on the HMON performance for Harvey

[Weiguo Wang - NOAA Affiliate]

Another thought is to replace GFDL surface scheme with MYJ. One reason is
that the NOAH land surface works best with MYJ surface scheme.  When a
storm moves closer to land, the land model may play more important role to
model track.  Right now, there is a big bias in surface temperature over
land from HMON (including HWRF) .


Also, we can replace GFS PBL with MYJ PBL scheme. Local scheme might do a
good job in hurricane situation, without too much empirical
changes/restrictions.





On Thu, Aug 31, 2017 at 5:24 PM, Weiguo Wang - NOAA Affiliate <
weiguo.wang at noaa.gov> wrote:

> Roughly, need 50% more time.
>
> Phys also play an  important role. If we look at results for 09L from HMON
> ensemble members, some members did good job,
>
>
>
> On Thu, Aug 31, 2017 at 2:12 PM, Avichal Mehra - NOAA Federal <
> avichal.mehra at noaa.gov> wrote:
>
>> But we did make runs with 61 (?) levels during our retrospectives. How
>> much more expensive were these as compared to the 43 level operational
>> configuration?
>>
>> Thanks, Avichal.
>>
>> On Thu, Aug 31, 2017 at 1:36 PM, Weiguo Wang - NOAA Affiliate <
>> weiguo.wang at noaa.gov> wrote:
>>
>>> Avichal
>>>
>>> No, we do not have members with large # levels.
>>> Most of them are using different phys options.
>>>
>>> On Thu, Aug 31, 2017 at 1:12 PM, Avichal Mehra - NOAA Federal <
>>> avichal.mehra at noaa.gov> wrote:
>>>
>>>> Weiguo,
>>>>
>>>> Do you have any ensemble members with larger number of vertical levels?
>>>> How did they perform for Harvey?
>>>>
>>>> Thanks, Avichal.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Thu, Aug 31, 2017 at 1:05 PM, Hyun-Sook Kim - NOAA Affiliate <
>>>> hyun.sook.kim at noaa.gov> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> Avichal,
>>>>>
>>>>> It occurred to me that we have to increase the vertical layer for
>>>>> NMMB. What I saw from today's Meg is that the HMON storm is too strong, too
>>>>> fast, and quick dissipation. Such prediction can be remedied by not only
>>>>> ocean coupling, but also increase in vertical levels.
>>>>>
>>>>> The HMON Gert forecast supports this suggestion, recall Weiguo's
>>>>> post-stamp figures of the large scale flow comparisons against the analysis.
>>>>>
>>>>> As long as its running time wouldn't be a big issue, we should
>>>>> consider one of upgrades for next year.
>>>>>
>>>>> -hsk
>>>>> --
>>>>>
>>>>> Hyun-Sook Kim
>>>>> NOAA Center for Weather & Climate Prediction
>>>>> 5830 University Research Court
>>>>> College Park, MD 20740
>>>>> (o)301-683-3760 <(301)%20683-3760>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> --
>>>>     Dr. Avichal Mehra
>>>> Avichal.Mehra at noaa.gov
>>>>     Lead Physical Scientist                      NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC
>>>>     5830 University Research Court        Room 2104
>>>>     College Park                                      Ph.
>>>> 301-683-3746 <(301)%20683-3746>
>>>>     MD 20740                                          Fax: 301-683-3703
>>>> <(301)%20683-3703>
>>>>
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>>>>
>>>
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>>
>>
>> --
>>     Dr. Avichal Mehra
>> Avichal.Mehra at noaa.gov
>>     Lead Physical Scientist                      NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC
>>     5830 University Research Court        Room 2104
>>     College Park                                      Ph.   301-683-3746
>> <(301)%20683-3746>
>>     MD 20740                                          Fax: 301-683-3703
>> <(301)%20683-3703>
>>
>
>
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